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000
FXUS63 KGRR 010728
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOUND AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BEFORE THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE COMPARED TO THE COOL WEATHER FROM EARLIER
THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE BEST THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS INCHING UP INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS INCHING
UP TOWARD 60. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED AS MID LEVELS COOL A TAD...AND A
WAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST THREAT OF A FEW
STRONGER STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY. CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. A GOOD DEAL OF THIS CAPE WILL BE IN
THE -10C TO -30C LAYER TO HELP WITH GOOD HAIL PRODUCTION. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LACKING WITH VALUES BELOW 20 KNOTS POINTING TOWARD
PULSE TYPE STORMS.

WE WILL SEE THE CHC OF STORMS CONTINUE FOR THE DAY ON SAT...HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY COOL MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN. LOWER TO MID 80S AND 60 DEGREE
DEW POINTS WILL PRODUCE 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE. THE MAIN FOCUS ON SAT
WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGING DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE LOWER
PENINSULA FROM LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE DAY ON SUN. WE WILL SEE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD EARLY AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS RIDGING
SUPPLYING A GOOD DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA...CAPPING ANY
POTENTIAL OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WE CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
RENEGADE SHOWER/STORM POPPING ON THE LAKE BREEZE WITH THE LIGHT FLOW
IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE CHC IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LITTLE QUESTION NO HEAT WAVES ARE ON THE WAY... NOR WOULD
I EXPECT ANY UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURGES OF COLD AIR DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

OVERALL THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN
CONUS CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.  WHAT
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED THROUGH IS MODEL TRENDS FOR HOW DEEP THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES.  WE HAVE TWO RECURVING TYPHOONS IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC AND IF YOU REMEMBER THE RECURVING OF NEOGURI (CAT 4)
THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY AND THE RECURVING OF MATMO (CAT 2) BOTH LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF COLD WEATHER WITHIN ABOUT A WEEK OF THEIR
RECURVING. WE NOW HAVE HALONG ABOUT TO RECURVE. I HAVE TO BELIEVE
THE ECMWF 01/00Z RUN...WHICH SHOWS A DEEPER EASTERN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAN THE GFS IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME... IS MOVER CORRECT.
THAT WOULD LEAD TO TWO PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS... MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AND
AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR NOW THOUGH I KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SINCE
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GFS WOULD BE CORRECT AND THE FRONT WOULD NOT GET
AS FAR SOUTH AT THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL. HOWEVER DO NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE OUR FORECAST POPS FOR WED LOWER OVER TIME AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES COME INTO THE FORECAST THEN TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THEY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OF MUSKEGON...GRAND RAPIDS AND
LANSING AND WILL LEAVE VICINITY MENTION OUT. FOG SHOULD BUILD AGAIN
INTO KMKG FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
BETTER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THURSDAY MORNING WHEN BELOW 1
MILE VISIBILITIES WERE OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY KGRR TO KAZO AND POINTS TO THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE ONLY CONCERN FOR MARINERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. A LIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...LIMITING WINDS TO GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. THIS LACK OF WIND AND SOMEWHAT MOIST AIR MASS OVER COOL LAKE
WATERS WILL PRODUCE A POTENTIAL FOR FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

BASIN AVERAGE QPF STAYS MINIMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS
NOT SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES EXPECTED. ISOLATED STORMS COULD
LOCALLY PRODUCE UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...MACZKO
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...NJJ