Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 271200
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 AND ONE TO THREE
INCHES WEST OF US-131. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER WEST OF US-131 THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO MAINLY NORTH OF I-96. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MI WILL RESULT
IN DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY. A CONSENSUS
OF LATEST 00Z SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT AREAS
NEAR TO EAST OF US-131 WILL ONLY RECEIVE UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW
TODAY AND ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF
US-131. ONLY MINOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WEST OF
US-131 AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING
WEST OF US-131 BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CAUSES PCPN TO END
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF I-96 WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER
AN INCH SOUTH OF I-96.

DRY WX WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAA PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF MILD AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LIQUID PRECIP
SUNDAY AS CLOUD TOPS ARE ONLY AROUND 4000 FEET AGL. SOME LIFT IS
NOTED IN THE STRATUS WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE
ABLE TO FOCUS SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATER IN THE DAY AND THE SFC
HIGH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING AREAS OF IFR ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR AND MVFR ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THERE ARE STILL FOUR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THOSE RIVERS
WILL CREST TODAY BEFORE RIVER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL AS ANY LIGHT
PCPN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. ANY PCPN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS





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