Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 301741
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
141 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Fair weather is expected for this Memorial Day and last into
Tuesday as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes. A cold
front approaching from the west will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Sfc high brings fair weather today and Tuesday then clouds and
some showers arrive Wednesday along the chance of thunderstorms.

Severe weather is not likely, although the cold front arrival
could come as early as Wednesday afternoon when sfc based lifted
indices are negative and 0 to 6 km shear values are 25 to 30
knots. Most ensemble members have the front arriving later
Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night. A
cooler and drier airmass will advect in behind this system for late
in the week as a high pressure ridge will build in and bring fair
weather Thursday afternoon through Friday.

The weather pattern will become a bit unsettled for next weekend
with northwest flow aloft and a series of upper level systems poised
to move in from the upper midwest and Canada. There is a small
chance for showers Saturday followed by a relatively better chance
for showers Sunday into early next week as a potentially stronger
upper level system moves in.

Temperatures will likely average below normal by Sunday and Monday
as a deeper upper level trough builds into the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the entire 18z fcst period.
Some cumulus clouds are developing inland from Lake Michigan early
this afternoon. These clouds are based around 5k ft. Some
additional development will occur this afternoon, with even a
sprinkle not out of the question at KLAN and KJXN. This should not
cause any impacts to aviation interests. Clouds will dissipate
quickly this evening toward sunset.

Winds will go light also around sunset. Fog potential looks rather
minimal for tonight even with clear skies and light winds. The
atmosphere is rather dry, and the nights are rather short at this
time of the year.

Some mid clouds around 15k ft will float in on Tue. We will also
see at least a little diurnal cumulus development toward
afternoon. Any cloud bases will be 4-5k ft and above.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory Criteria
through Tuesday night, although there will be some wind gusts over
20 knots at times.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

River levels across the area are near normal values for this time of
year. Precipitation of a quarter inch up to three quarters of an inch
is possible over the next week, mainly on Wednesday and Thursday.
River rises will mainly be confined to smaller creeks and streams
and should not reach flood levels.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...Ostuno



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