Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 240454

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1254 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016


Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A few rain showers will occur over Central Lower this evening, but
then push east out of the area.  Cooler air will move over the
region, resulting in daytime highs of 50 to 55 for both Monday and
Tuesday.  But we will see a mix of clouds and sun each day.  Clouds
will thicken up Tuesday night with scattered showers moving in
toward daybreak Wednesday, especially southwest of Grand Rapids.

Rain should spread over the entire area into Wednesday and continue
Wednesday night.  Another good chance of rain should arrive Friday
night.  Daytime temperatures should largely be in the 50s through
the week, but we may brief get to 60 to 65 on Friday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The short term remains quiet.  Some widely scattered showers toward
Highway 10 this evening will move out, then the next chance of rain
arrives from the southwest late Tuesday night.

Short wave and a surface low will cross the CWA early this evening.
It appears the pcpn associated with this system will stay north of
Pentwater to Saginaw line, then exit toward midnight.

High pressure moves in Monday, with quiet weather through Tuesday
evening.  Northwest upper flow and cold advection behind tonight`s
system will keep us in the cool 50 to 55 range both days.  Lows will
mainly be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.  Some frost is possible, but
coordination with harvest means, have determined the end of the
growing season is upon us, so no frost headlines will be issued.

Agree with previous forecaster that the lake effect potential looks
low.  We will likely see move clouds near the lake shore Monday into
Monday night and perhaps a few sprinkles.  But this minimal chance
and the fact that the flow will be 340-350, any impact is not worth
adding to the forecast.

We will gradually see more high clouds into Tuesday, and thickening
up Tuesday night, ahead of the next system.  Trends are a bit slower
for the deeper moisture to arrive, so the pcpn moving in from the
southwest should not occur until after 06Z, and only push to about a
MKG-BTL line by 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

The main challenge in the long term deals with the impacts of the
mid week storm system.  Overall will need to monitor the system for
possible wind impacts along with perhaps some snow for northern

Models are in decent agreement in tracking a digging mid level
shortwave through MI Wednesday into Thursday.  This system takes on
a negative tilt so plenty of dynamics a developing area of heavier
rain. I raised POPs over the guidance.  Some instability tries to
arrive from the south...but it remains just south of the border
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The 925 mb winds increase to over
40 depending on mixing we could see powerful gusts.  I
did raise the winds over what the guidance provided.  Could be close
to a wind advisory. Forecast soundings near Harrison in Clare county
are close to snow Wednesday night.  Still a shallow above freezing
layer exists...but based on trends...may need to add some snow to
the forecast.  Will hold off on it right now.  The temperatures to
start the day on Wednesday will be below freezing for northeast
interior counties...but it looks like the precipitation there will
hold off until after the onset later in the morning.  So will keep
the precipitation type as rain.  Wrap around moisture combined with
lake enhancement should keep the showers going on Thursday
especially near the lakeshore.

Yet another system heads our way for Friday night into Saturday. The
GFS is stronger and faster with this wave while the High Res Euro is
slower and weaker.  Will maintain the risk for showers.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1253 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Sct-bkn vfr stratocu is expected to move south across the taf
sites this morning. Look for clouds to scatter out this afternoon.


Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Will maintain the small craft advisory that runs through the first
half of Monday.  North winds could approach 30 knots overnight, then
gradually diminish Monday morning.  As high pressure builds into the
area, winds and waves will subside Monday afternoon.  Conditions are
expected to remain rather quiet Monday night through Tuesday night.


Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

No significant hydro impacts are expected over the next week.
Widespread rain is expected Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall totals
between 0.50-1.00 inch are expected, which will result in river
rises late in the week into next weekend. Mostly within bank rises
are expected.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for



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