Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRR 011719
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
119 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POP UP SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
BY TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE BEST THREAT OF STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS INCHING UP INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS INCHING
UP TOWARD 60. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED AS MID LEVELS COOL A TAD...AND A
WAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST THREAT OF A FEW
STRONGER STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY. CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. A GOOD DEAL OF THIS CAPE WILL BE IN
THE -10C TO -30C LAYER TO HELP WITH GOOD HAIL PRODUCTION. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE LACKING WITH VALUES BELOW 20 KNOTS POINTING TOWARD
PULSE TYPE STORMS.

WE WILL SEE THE CHC OF STORMS CONTINUE FOR THE DAY ON SAT...HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LOWER COMPARED TO
TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY COOL MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN. LOWER TO MID 80S AND 60 DEGREE
DEW POINTS WILL PRODUCE 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE. THE MAIN FOCUS ON SAT
WILL LIKELY BE LAKE BREEZES CONVERGING DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE LOWER
PENINSULA FROM LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON.

WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FCST FOR THE DAY ON SUN. WE WILL SEE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD EARLY AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS RIDGING
SUPPLYING A GOOD DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE AREA...CAPPING ANY
POTENTIAL OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WE CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A
RENEGADE SHOWER/STORM POPPING ON THE LAKE BREEZE WITH THE LIGHT FLOW
IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE CHC IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
FCST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LITTLE QUESTION NO HEAT WAVES ARE ON THE WAY... NOR WOULD
I EXPECT ANY UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURGES OF COLD AIR DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

OVERALL THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN
CONUS CONTINUES WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.  WHAT
NEEDS TO BE WATCHED THROUGH IS MODEL TRENDS FOR HOW DEEP THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES.  WE HAVE TWO RECURVING TYPHOONS IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC AND IF YOU REMEMBER THE RECURVING OF NEOGURI (CAT 4)
THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY AND THE RECURVING OF MATMO (CAT 2) BOTH LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF COLD WEATHER WITHIN ABOUT A WEEK OF THEIR
RECURVING. WE NOW HAVE HALONG ABOUT TO RECURVE. I HAVE TO BELIEVE
THE ECMWF 01/00Z RUN...WHICH SHOWS A DEEPER EASTERN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAN THE GFS IN THE WED/THU TIME FRAME... IS MOVER CORRECT.
THAT WOULD LEAD TO TWO PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS... MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THAT NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AND
AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

FOR NOW THOUGH I KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SINCE
IT IS POSSIBLE THE GFS WOULD BE CORRECT AND THE FRONT WOULD NOT GET
AS FAR SOUTH AT THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS IT WILL. HOWEVER DO NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE OUR FORECAST POPS FOR WED LOWER OVER TIME AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES COME INTO THE FORECAST THEN TOO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

MVFR FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE SUN HEATS THE AIR THIS
MORNING. BY 14Z ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR. THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A WEST WINDS MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER TO LAN. TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

OVERALL LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM...CONDITIONS WILL
FEATURE WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 15 KNOTS...LOW WAVE HEIGHTS AND WARMING
WATER TEMPERATURES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THE WEATHER WILL BE
MAINLY DRY. RUNOFF WILL BE LIMITED DUE THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
STORMS. THE ONLY REAL POTENTIAL IMPACT WOULD BE ISOLATED URBAN
FLOODING IF A STORM HAPPENED TO STALL OVER A CITY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.