Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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319
FXUS63 KGRR 242343
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
743 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

A warm weekend with some chance for some showers/thunderstorms
Saturday night and Sunday. A fairly quiet and comfortable week
ahead with only a slim chances for showers on Monday night and
Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Mostly quiet first half of the weekend with dry and hot weather
expected for Saturday and much of Saturday evening before a cold
front begins to work toward Michigan. This front will work through
late Saturday night and Sunday bringing a chance for showers and
even a rumble of thunder during the overnight/early morning period
and again Sunday afternoon/evening.

Looks like overnight/early morning shower activity will be weakening
as it works across Lake Michigan as forcing really lacking so really
not expecting too much of anything with this initial push.  Better
chance for showers/storms comes in the afternoon/evening time frame
and even this still has limited confidence at this time. Surface
heating a key component and this could be limited by lingering
clouds from the earlier in the day activity.  Other limitation at
this time is the lack of really good mid level lapse rates. Models
are hinting at good chance for convection in the afternoon/evening
especially in the eastern and southeastern portions of the
forecast area so something to keep an eye on.

Front and any showers/storms that develop leave the region quickly
Sunday night ushering in the air mass that will bring a pleasant
long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Overall the theme of relatively quiet weather continues in the
long term period. For now...high pressure is shown to control our
weather through most of the week.  Some instability does try to
develop on Monday...but this risk for storms is low given the lack of
forcing during the day.  As the atmosphere stabilizes at night...the
mid level trough does sharpen up.  If this forcing arrives
sooner...a better risk for thunderstorms would exist. So will
need to monitor trends here.

Another shortwave may track into the region Thursday or Friday.  The
00z High Res Euro generally keeps this system south of MI.  The new
GFS has it tracking into MI Thursday night and Friday.  For
now...will keep the risk for showers and even a few thunderstorms
going.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR/CLR weather will continue the next 24 hours - High confidence.
Light/calm winds tonight will become south-southeast at 5-10 kts
on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Winds and waves will continue to be light through tonight and
Saturday. As weather approaches Saturday night into early Sunday, an
increase in wind and waves over Lake Michigan is expected. Generally
this increase should be to less than 15 knots and under 3 foot
waves that should last through Sunday afternoon.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Up to around a half inch of rain is possible Saturday night into
Sunday night. River levels are running at to a little below normal
and flooding is not expected through the week.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maczko
SHORT TERM...Maczko
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...Meade
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...Maczko



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