Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 202006
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
306 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

20Z/3 pm surface analysis shows 1025 mb high pressure along the
OH/WV border and ridging from the eastern Great Lakes to AL/GA.
Sunshine filtering through cirrus clouds over central IL along
with south breezes was giving warm temps in the 75-80F range, with
mid 70s in sw/west central IL where thicker cirrus clouds.
Surface high pressure ridge to drift east off the Atlantic coast
Saturday while strong upper level ridge remains over the Atlantic
States. Dry weather to continue through Saturday as mid/high
clouds continue to increase from the SSW ahead of a short wave
trof in Texas and nw Gulf of Mexico. Milder lows tonight in the
lower 50s in eastern IL and upper 50s from Peoria and Springfield
west. Another warm day in the upper 70s to near 80F on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

A strong cold front to track east into nw IL by 12Z/7 am Sunday
and sweep through IL during the day Sunday. Have 20-30% chances of
showers and thunderstorms over the IL river valley Sat evening,
then spread 50-80% pops of showers and chances of thunderstorms
eastward across CWA during overnight Sat night. SPC day2 outlook
has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Sat night from
Galesburg to Rushville west while slight risk of severe storms is
west of IL. Continued 50-80% chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms on Sunday, with thunder chances mainly Sunday
morning. Mild lows Sat night in the lower 60s, except upper 50s by
Galesburg where cold front passes through by dawn Sunday. Cooler
highs Sunday range from lower 60s by Galesburg to the mid 70s
along the Wabash river.

Forecast models continue to develop at 570 dm 500 mb cutoff low
over the AR ozarks by sunset Sunday and tracks into the southern
TN river valley by sunset Monday. ECMWF and GEM models keeps a
fair amount of qpf east of the IL river Sunday night and Monday
while GFS is further east with qpf in eastern IL Sunday night and
east of IL on Monday. Leaned toward the wetter ECMWF and GEM
models for Sunday night and Monday. Seasonable highs Monday of
64-68F.

A strong upper level trof digs sse into IL later Monday night and
Tuesday and continues chances of showers in eastern IL Monday
night and across most of CWA on Tue as colder air ushers in. Highs
Tue range from the lower 50s nw of the IL river, to around 60F by
Lawrenceville. Clouds to decrease from west to east during Tue
night. Lows Tue night of 35-40F and could be some patchy frost
late nw of IL river if nw winds decrease enough. Highs Wed only in
the low to mid 50s despite partly to mostly sunny skies as strong
upper level trof shifts east of IL. Lows Wed night in the lower
40s, except upper 30s in eastern IL. Some upper level ridging
into IL Wed night and into the Ohio river valley Thu to moderate
temps into low to mid 60s for highs Thu. Next chance of showers
arrives overnight Thu night and Friday of next week as another
cold front moves through the area. This will be followed by colder
lows in the mid to upper 30s next Fri night and risk of frost
again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

VFR conditions expected to continue across the central IL
terminals through 18Z/1 pm Sat. Added LLWS at PIA from 06-12Z
overnight with 1500 ft SSW winds of 35-40 kts. Scattered to broken
cirrus clouds to gradually increase from the SSW next 24 hours
with scattered mid level clouds by Sat morning. These mid/high
clouds from a short wave trof over Texas and nw Gulf of Mexico.
SSW winds of 8-13 kts with gusts 14-18 kts this afternoon. South
winds increase to 10-15 kts Sat morning with gusts of 15-20 kts
returning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07


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