Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230451
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure and the associated dry airmass will remain in
control of the local weather. As a result, quiet weather is
expected across central and southeast Illinois through the night.

Going forecast was in good shape and only needed to make a few
minor tweaks for to the hourly trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

A high pressure ridge over the Mississippi River Valley this
afternoon will continue to move across the region tonight.  The
ridge will keep the skies mostly clear with very light and variable
winds.  By morning, the ridge axis should be much further to the
east, resulting in more south/southeasterly turn to the winds.  A
quiet night overall is expected for Central Illinois.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Two upper lows, over the east and west coast remain in place
today...with pleasant weather in the middle and warm temperatures
continuing to build a thermal ridge in the mid levels over the
Plains. Models persist with solutions for the pattern shift as the
eastern low finally kicks out off the coast, allowing the warm
temperatures to spread into the Midwest as more southwesterly flow
aloft sets up for a series of shortwaves next week.  The result is
warm temperatures but an active rainy/stormy pattern.  The real
issues in the forecast revolve around the persistent chances for
showers and thunderstorms...but as showery and not an all day rain
in most cases...a tricky temperature forecast.

Models are showing more consistency with slowing the approach of the
first wave Monday night until after 06z for just the western half of
the state, if that. Chances increase on Tuesday from west to
east...but not all the way to the Indiana border until later in the
afternoon/evening Tuesday.  So far, the best chances for severe
weather is slated for Wednesday, assuming at least a partial
clearing allowing for temperatures warming/destabilization of the
atmosphere.  Too early to make too many judgment calls with the
severe chances...but it will remain a time frame to watch.  Beyond
mid-week...the chance pops stay in the forecast through the end of
the week and at least partially into the weekend as the trof over
the western half of the country expands and continues a series of
weak waves in southwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Quiet/VFR conditions expected across the central Illinois
terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. Winds will trend
southeasterly with time as high pressure slowly pulls away from
the area. Cloud cover should be minimal, mainly limited to thin
cirrus.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK


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