Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250153
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
853 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE MINNEAPOLIS METRO AREA AND
NW WISCONSIN AT MID EVENING AND SHOULD REACH THE MID POINT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY MADISON...BY 5-6 AM SATURDAY. THE FRONT
HAS SOME STORMS WITH IT ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND OTHER WEAK
STUFF OVER SOUTHEAST MN. THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY STRETCHES
FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BACK SOUTHWEST INTO MN AND NCNTRL IA.
DRIER AIR ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN IS KEEPING IT STABLE THERE.
THE STORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY WEAK SO FAR OVER NRN WI AND REALLY
DON/T EXPECT ANY STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
WARMER DOWN HERE AND THAT SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE STORMS AS
THEY MOVE IN. IT ONE OF THE REASONS THE FRONT IS STRUGGLING OVER
SE MN. ANY CAPE LATER TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY ELEVATED OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL MAINTAIN VERY SMALL POPS OVERNIGHT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT
A VFR DECK OF AROUND 3500-4500FT TO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WI. THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KMSN BY 10-11Z SAT AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY
12-13Z SAT. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE
VERY SMALL AND WILL JUST CARRY THEM AS VICINITY IN THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BACK EDGE OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK FINALLY APPROACHING THE NW
FORECAST AREA. SEEMS THE CLEARING SHOULD MOVE IN SOON ENOUGH TO
ALLOW DECENT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THIS SHOULD HELP LEAD TO
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ELEVATED ANYWAY.

KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS
SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. GIVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GO WITH 30-40 KT OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR...COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. BEST CHANCE
FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE IN THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. LATEST SPC DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS MAINTAINING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
IN ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SLIGHT
RISK IN THE FAR WEST.

SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE...925 MB TEMPS ACTUALLY LOOK A TAD WARMER
TOMORROW. WITH THE DECREASING SKY COVER...EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL TURN
ONSHORE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT A BIT
COOLER THERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OUT OF WI. MODELS IN PRETTY
DECENT AGREEMENT ON KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY THIS PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH SPREADS PRECIP ALMOST ALL
THE WAY TO THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWSLESS
CONFIDENCE IN THIS. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS KEEP AFTERNOON POPS
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN 1/4 OF THE CWA OR SO. OVERALL SOLUTIONS
FAVOR LINGERING DRYING WITH 850 JET FURTHER WEST. SHORTWAVE DOES
RIDE INTO THE AREA DURG THE AFTN ON ALL THE MODELS...SO WILL KEEP
SOME POPS GOING IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
591DM RIDGE BUILDS UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY FOCUS FOR PRECIP
BEING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH ANY SURFACE/850 BAROCLINICITY. SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 00Z
AND 12Z ECMWF SEEMED TO HAVE THE CLEANER LOOK OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE WITH RESPECT TO LACK OF OVERLY STRONG VORTS RIDING THROUGH
THE RIDGE. BUT FOR THE MOST PART MAIN STORY WILL BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PUMPS 925 TEMPS INTO THE 26-28C
RANGE. SUPERBLEND SHOWING MID/UPPER 80S AND WILL GO THAT ROUTE FOR
NOW DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER FROM ANY CONVECTION.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH NORTHERN PLAINS ENERGY ROTATING MID LEVEL
WIND MAX INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING EXPECTED AS WELL
SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF TSRA WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COOLER AND DRIER REGIME SETS IN WITH NWLY POST FRONTAL WIND
REGIME. 00Z ECMWF WAS RATHER PRONOUNCED WITH THE COOLDOWN THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY THOUGH GFS NOT AS MUCH WITH A QUICK RETURN TO WARMER
925 TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN AND SHOWS A THERMAL
PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH THERMAL RIDGE RETURNING TO NW WI
FOR FRIDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROP
THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS MAINLY DRY THEN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH SATURDAY...
OTHER THAN SOME BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS IN MODERATE RAINFALL. MODELS
ARE TRYING TO SHOW SOME BR LATER TONIGHT UNDER LIGHTER WINDS...BUT
NOT SURE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND MOS SHOWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF
3-5 DEGREES. JUST TOOK TAFS DOWN TO 6 SM FOR NOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR


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