Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 291502 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1002 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR GIVEN EXTENT OF
CLOUDS IN THE REGION. CURRENTLY A NICE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH A FEW HOLES ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION.
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND 80 TODAY
GIVEN 925 MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF 21C. 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...SO THE POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC IS MAINTAINING A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY PROBABLY PICKING UP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND INTO THE AFTENOON AS A WAVE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA. PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY PROBABLY PICKING UP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TOWARD THE NOON HOUR AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A WAVE LIFTS
INTO THE AREA. PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.

OUTSIDE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH IMPROVING CIGS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END LATE THIS MRNG OVER LMZ643 BUT
MORE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY.  AN ABRUPT SWITCH TO NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED.  A STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
WILL RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS MIXING DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE.
GUSTS MAY REACH GALE WARNING CRITERIA FOR A TIME ON SAT WITH
RESULTANT HIGH WAVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS TRIGGERED
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING TSTORMS FROM SW WI INTO ERN IA.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE
NEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES INCLUDING THE AFTERNOON. THUS
MLCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB TO 1000 J/KG. FOR TNT...THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL SAT AM BUT PVA AND
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. SOME FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...MAINLY ISOLATED THOUGH...WITH PWS UP TO 1.6 INCHES AND
CORFIDI MAGNITUDES OF 5-10 KTS WHILE STORM MOTION WILL BE 30 KTS.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH TAKING 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM
DELAYING ITS PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE QPF
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE CANADIAN KEEPS SOME QPF AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A MORE
DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST. THE NAM IS WET THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND FINALLY DRIES THINGS OUT SATURDAY EVENING.

SIDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS...AND KEPT POPS
IN THE MORNING SATURDAY...THEN SMALL POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER WORDING...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOW NO MEAN LAYER CAPE. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S LAKESIDE...WITH LOWER 60S WELL
INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP BRING QUIET WEATHER. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPPER 30S FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS KEEP 50S
NEAR THE LAKE AND LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS IT SLOWLY EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY REBOUND TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR THE LAKE EACH DAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE WEST OF THE
AREA...SO THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY AS WELL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECT THE
AREA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN FOR TODAY INTO THE
EVENING BUT STRATUS OF 600 FEET TO 1.5 KFT WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT AM. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP
TNT AHEAD OF THE FRONT GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE
PRESENT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BRISK AND GUSTY NELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AFTERWARD WITH HIGH WAVES QUICKLY DEVELOPING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD


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