Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 222029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016


Tonight and Sunday...Forecast confidence medium.

A few middle to high clouds may move through the area overnight
tonight, mainly in northern portions of the area. Otherwise, mostly
clear skies are expected. These conditions may lead to some light
fog developing in low lying areas, but left out of forecast for now.
Milder lows are expected tonight, with upper 30s to lower 40s in
most areas.

Low pressure will then slide east southeast across the region on
Sunday, bringing a cold front southward into the area during the
afternoon. There is a fairly potent 500 mb vorticity maximum that
slides east southeast through northern and central Wisconsin,
brushing the northeastern portions of the area.

There should be some lower clouds that slide southeast into the area
during the afternoon. However, the rest of the air column per area
forecast soundings is rather dry. A few of the models are bringing
light QPF into the northeastern portions of the area Sunday
afternoon. Not confident that enough deep moisture will be present
for showers. For now, will keep this area dry during this period.
Highs mainly in the mid 60s are forecast.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Forecast confidence high.

The cold front will exit srn WI by early Sun evening with
stratocumulus clouds decreasing by late evening. The nly winds and
cold advection will subside by Mon am with cool temps and some
frost formation expected. A large high pressure area will then
slowly move ewd across the wrn Great Lakes Mon and Mon night. Full
sunshine and 925 mb temps around 6-7c will yield high temps in the
middle 50s on Mon. Temps will cool into the upper 30s to lower 40s
by late evening but high clouds will increase late at night.

A shortwave trough and low pressure area will organize over the
central Great Plains on Tue with a developing warm front across
IA. The middle level frontogenesis and warm advection will extend
into srn WI but only chances of rain given the low level dry

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday...Forecast confidence

The shortwave trough and low pressure area will move across IA,
reaching nw IL by 00z Thu. Strong 850-700 mb warm advection and
frontogenesis along with PWs above an inch will lead to widespread
showers and perhaps isolated tstorms from late Tue night through
Wed. The upper trough will then pass Wed night with showers likely
continuing. The total rainfall forecast at this time is for
1.25-2.25 inches with the greater amounts over south central WI.

The low will move to Lake Huron by 00z Fri with cyclonic flow,
clouds, and lgt showers possibly lingering through Thu. Much
uncertainty with the model spread for the weekend but going with
the 12z ECMWF with a high pressure ridge on Fri followed by sly
flow and warm advection on Sat. Chances for showers may need to be
introduced or expanded in future forecasts for Sat as low pressure
and a cold front approaches. Due to the clouds and rain, a cool
period is expected from Tue-Thu where high temps could get stuck
in the 40s.



A few middle to high clouds may move through the area tonight. Light
winds may allow for light fog in low lying areas, but TAF sites
should have visibilities in VFR category.

Low pressure will slide east southeast across the area Sunday, with
a cold front sliding south into the area during the afternoon. Light
south to southwest winds in the morning will veer northwest to north
by later in the afternoon. Some gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible
as well.

An area of scattered to broken VFR category clouds should slide
southeast into the TAF sites during the late afternoon, lingering
into the early evening.



A tightening pressure gradient behind a passing cold front later
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night may allow for northwest to north
gusts up to 22 knots. Waves will build to 2 to 4 feet Sunday night
and linger into Monday morning, highest south of North Point

Overall, conditions look too borderline for a Small Craft Advisory
at this time for late Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

A better shot at Small Craft Advisory conditions comes Wednesday
into Thursday, as strong low pressure moves through the region. The
tight pressure gradient should allow for gusty winds and high waves
during this period.


.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday...Gehring is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.