Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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966
FXUS63 KMKX 180433
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1133 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Clear skies. Southwest wind gradient and low dew points will
prevent ground fog formation.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with clear to
scattered high clouds. Southwest surface winds are rather light,
but remain elevated above the boundary layer. This will result in
low level wind shear concerns through the overnight hours. The
wind shear threat will diminish once we mix out by mid morning on
Wednesday. Expect gusty southwest winds on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 927 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017)

UPDATE...

Some high thin clouds northeast areas this evening, otherwise
clear. Southwest wind gradient and low dew points will prevent
ground fog formation.

MARINE...

A new small craft advisory will go into effect at 8 am on
Wednesday and continue through Wednesday night due to strong and
gusty southwest winds. The highest waves will be out toward open
water and over our northern marine areas, like Sheboygan.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 604 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017)

UPDATE...

Some high thin clouds north areas this evening, otherwise clear.
Southwest wind gradient and low dew points will prevent ground fog
formation.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with clear to
scattered high clouds. Southwest surface winds will fall off
early this evening, but remain elevated above the boundary layer.
This will result in low level wind shear concerns through the
overnight hours. The wind shear threat will diminish once we mix
out by mid morning on Wednesday. Expect gusty southwest winds on
Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 302 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday night...Forecast confidence is high.

Our dry and mild pattern will continue through the work week.
Wednesday will be very similar to today, plenty of sunshine, but
with more gusty wind. A weak/dry cold front will drift across
Wisconsin Wednesday night, dropping highs on Thursday about 3 to 4
degrees from the previous day. Warmer temperatures push right
back in on Friday with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is high.

A cold front with better moisture and dynamics will push through
the area mainly Saturday night into Sunday morning. That should be
the period for the best chance of rain. Some guidance is spitting
out some light, pre-frontal showers on Saturday, but again, the
bulk of any rainfall will come Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Temps will remain warm, in the 70s, ahead of the front on
Saturday, dropping back into the 60s behind the front on Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

We start to see a deeper mid level cyclonic flow develop across
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week, keeping small
chances of showers in the forecast, along with highs falling back
into the 50s.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with clear to
scattered high clouds. Southwest surface winds will fall off
early this evening, but remain elevated above the boundary layer.
This will result in low level wind shear concerns through the
overnight hours. The wind shear threat will diminish once we mix
out by mid morning on Wednesday. Expect gusty southwest winds on
Wednesday.

MARINE...

The current small craft advisory for areas south of Milwaukee will
remain in effect until evening. A new small craft advisory will go
into effect at 8 am on Wednesday and continue through Wednesday
night due to strong and gusty southwest winds. The highest waves
will be out toward open water and over our northern marine areas,
like Sheboygan.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 4 AM CDT Thursday
     for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Davis



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