Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 210937
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK 500/250 MB UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING AS LITTLE MORE LATE
TONIGHT.  THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME FAIRLY
SATURATED THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A HINT OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ONLY 1 TO 2 JOULES/KG.

SURFACE LAYERS REMAIN COLD...WITH THE 3 TO 7 THSD FT LAYER RISING
ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN A FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING.  THE NAM/GFS/ AND 00Z ECMWF ALL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTH HALF.  WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN THE AREAS WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. MAY END UP
SEEING MAINLY DRIZZLE GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS. KEPT MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP TO AROUND -1...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK. OPTED TO NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH ON THANKSGIVING...WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATING DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL TURN COLD AGAIN NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST BY NOON WITH
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SATURATES LATER TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...JUST BEFORE  MIDNIGHT SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS AND MAY DROP TO IFR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN SOUTH AREAS...AND LOWEST TO
THE NORTH TOWARDS THE DELLS AND FOND DU LAC.  THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ059-
     060-064>066-070>072.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ062-063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV



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