Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 290319
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1019 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...THE PCPN IS MOSTLY IN A DISSIPATING STAGE BUT SHOWERS
COULD PERSIST OVER FAR SE WI FOR 2-3 HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS SLOW TO EXIT. OVERALL...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVES THROUGH WITHIN A MOIST AND VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATM.
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TNT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SRN WI DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIR. FOR
MON...GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD TSTORMS AS A SFC
TROUGH AND LAKE BREEZE EXTENDS N-S ACROSS ERN WI.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR
SRN WI HAS RESULTED IN LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WHICH WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EARLY MON AM. SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM 1-3
KFT IS ALSO EXPECTED. DRIER CONDITIONS OVER FAR ERN WI WILL LIMIT
THE LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CIGS TO SMALL AREAS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
MON. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MON AM OVER SRN WI
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MON AFT AND NIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS OF STRATUS FROM 1-3 KFT
AND LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP LATE MON NT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THESE FEATURES
TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GOING...WITH MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT WITH PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW...SO POPS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY UNDER VERY
LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS AREA HAS SEEN THE BULK OF RAIN
TODAY...WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHANCE FOR SOME FOG.

AS ONE WAVE EXITS MONDAY...ANOTHER ONE WILL APPROACH.
ADDITIONALLY...DECENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES. NOT
SEEING A REAL OBVIOUS FEATURE FOR LIFT...BUT WITH THE MOISTURE AND
SOME INSTABILITY...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. FOCUSED HIGHER POPS IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE
PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY...SO DID NOT GO AS HIGH WITH SURFACE TEMPS AS
925 MB TEMPS OF 18-19C WOULD SUGGEST WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

OMEGA WITH SHORT WAVE RIDING IN ON NOSE OF 250 MB JET MAX
OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE EARLY IN THE EVENING MONDAY...GOING TO MORE
RAIN SHOWERS AS CAPE DIMINISHES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH ONLY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT FORCING AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIVES INTO THE WESTERN FLANK OF BROAD 500 MB TROUGH KEEPING
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER REGION. WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT
HOLDS LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. EARLY WESTERLY WINDS ALLOW
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPR 70S BEFORE WEAK FLOW WITH TROUGH
ALLOWS LAKE BREEZE TO LOWER READINGS INT HE FAR EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO START OUT DRY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH NOSING INTO SRN WI FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH TIMING OF VORTICITY MAXIMA IN NW
FLOW OVER REGION...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...HAS CONSENSUS
POPS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY
MAINLY DUE TO INFLUENCE OF ECMWF.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
COOL FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE ON NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS...WITH READINGS
APPROACHING 80 IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND PCPN.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
LOW

PERSISTENT TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY...AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
COMING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY FLATTEN WESTERN RIDGE
SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL AN ACTIVE WNW FLOW REGIME. MODELS ALL DIGGING A
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF PUSHING IT EAST  BY FRIDAY EVENING AND SHORT
WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. SLOWER AND DEEPER
GFS CUTS OFF 500 MB LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
KEEPING PCPN OVER THE SOUTH IN DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS LEADS TO
BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BUT WOULD NOT WRITE OFF THE JULY 4TH
HOLIDAY JUST YET. SUNDAY STARTS OUT DRY...WITH FASTER ECMWF BRINGING
A SURFACE TROUGH AND PCPN INTO WESTERN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SLOWER GFS KEEPS PCPN LIMITED TO THE
NW HALF SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES START COOL AND SLOWLY CLIMB
TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS...BUT AGAIN TIMING OF ANY PCPN WILL HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. STILL THINK LOWER CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS BY JUST TO THE SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WELL...MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.

MORE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WITH ANY LOWER
CIGS LIKELY RETURNING TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REM


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