Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 250928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO SRN IL TODAY
AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TNT. THIS SRN TRACK HAS RESULTED IN
ONLY AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE SW HALF OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AM WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE NELY WINDS WILL BRING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY AT 850-700 MB LAYER...THUS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
ONLY BE CAPABLE OF FLURRIES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE DRYING
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AWAY FROM FAR SE WI
FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S DURING
THE MORNING ON BRISK NELY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. THEY WILL HOLD
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN DROPPING TOWARD EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER FAR SE WI AND
WILL THEN BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BEFORE THE HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM
IS SLOWEST TO SPREAD QPF INTO THE AREA. SUSTAINED FORCING LOOKS
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK
LOW...THUS MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL DUE TO LOSS OF SATURATION WITHIN THE
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY IS MOSTLY OF THE
SHEARED VARIETY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS
POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE RANGING
FROM A FEW TENTHS IN THE WEST TO A 1/2 TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE
EAST.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN TUESDAY...SO
QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH NEXT
LOW DRAWING CLOSER. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW
POSITION INTO SRN IA VCNTY BY DAYS END. SO EXPECTING A RETURN
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEAST FLOW TO EVOLVE. THIS ADVECTS MILDER 850/925
TEMPS INTO SRN WI. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO
NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
KEEPING BETTER RH WEST OF HERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTH ON LOW TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GEM/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE
THERMAL FIELDS WHICH POINTS TOWARDS A POSSIBLE MIXY SCENARIO FOR
A TIME UNTIL LOW PASSES AND ISOTHERMS COLLAPSE. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
A MIX LOOKS TO BE PRIOR TO 6Z SO WENT ALL SNOW AFTER THAT. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO DETAILS ON PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TO WAFFLE ESP IF
A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK REMOVES THE MIX POTENTIAL.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF OF THE
DEPARTED LOW FROM THURSDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF ON COLD
PUSH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO BRINGING IN
A POTENTIAL ARCTIC SURGE. THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONGER LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH BIG TIME COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A QUIET HIGH WITH SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATER SATURDAY...WITH SNOW
CHANCES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. SNOWFALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE A BIG DEAL IN EITHER SCENARIO BUT MASSIVE DIFFERENCES IN THE
THERMAL FIELDS. 925 TEMPS FRO THE ECMWF -20 TO -25 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WITH A BLUSTERY NW WIND. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY
MILDER SOUTHWEST WIND WITH 925 TEMPS OF -6 TO -8C. NEEDLESS TO SAY
WILL BE STICKING WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER SRN WI THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY ACROSS
IA AND IL. LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1 KFT WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON
LEADING TO FEW-SCT STRATUS FOR KMSN WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT FOR THE SE WI TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BRISK NELY WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM IA INTO
SRN IL. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD OVER LAKE MI FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LESSER WAVES BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR



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