Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 062022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION.  WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU.  ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT.  FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL.  COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.  GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA.  SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH.  NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES.  TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.

&&

.BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK



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