Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 210450
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1150 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

patchy MVFR fog around sunrise. Otherwise VFR into Tuesday
afternoon. Mainly mid/upper level clouds until early Tuesday
evening when Lake enhanced MVFR clouds/flurries possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 947 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017)

UPDATE...

VIRGA has pushed east. mainly mid/upper level clouds that should
thin a little.

MARINE...

North to northeast winds will prevail into Tuesday ahead of
approaching high pressure from the northern plains. At this time
expecting overall speeds and wave heights to be below small craft
thresholds until Tuesday evening when wave action is expected to
exceed criteria.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 814 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017)

UPDATE...

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...

VFR this period. mainly mid/upper level clouds until Tuesday
evening when Lake enhanced MVFR clouds/flurries possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 247 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017)

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium WNW broadly cyclonic
flow will be in place this period. Jet related AC/CI will whisk
through nrn/cntrl WI with srn WI being clipped. Main story will be
cold advection on north winds. Traj/delta t becomes favorable for
at least some lake clouds and flurries after 21z on Tuesday esp
north of KMKE. 925 temps will be cooler with readings near 0c so
expecting highs mostly in the 40s.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence is High:

High pressure will remain in place for Tuesday night and Wed,
bringing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies away from Lake
Michigan. Kept higher cloud cover and mention of flurries near
the lake Tuesday evening and early night due to possible lake
effect. Temps are borderline and deeper moisture doesn`t last very
long, so not thinking accumulations at this point. Temps and
fetch remain favorable for flurries into Wed, though left mention
out for now because of drier air. Below normal temps are likely on
Wednesday.

Thursday through Monday...Forecast Confidence is Medium to High:

Models remain in good agreement showing low pressure moving slowly
through the region late in the week and over the weekend. High
confidence this will bring a long period of precip chances back
into the area later Thursday into Saturday, possibly lingering
into Sunday. Still looks like all rain with this system, though a
few snowflakes mixed in toward the end of the precip are possible.
Kept mention of thunder Thursday night through Friday evening, as
still seeing some elevated instability.

Near normal temps Thursday should warm back above normal Friday,
though not great confidence in temps for any given location as
models have shifted the front a tad farther south. The front is
progged to bisect the forecast area during they day, which would
result in quite a spread of temps south to north across southern
Wisconsin. Won`t take much of a budge north or south to result in
big temp forecast changes for areas near the the front. Should see
near normal temp return for the weekend, possibly warming up a
little by Monday.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR this period. Surface cold front
dropping through CWA with winds shifting more to the north. Some
accelerations possible near the lake esp as 925/850 winds ramp up
a bit later today into this evening. All in all cold advection
regime kicks in and sets up low level thermal trough into Tuesday.
Highest low level rh ends up being closer to the lake where
onshore trajectories briefly set up and bring at least some clouds
and maybe some flurries.

MARINE...North to northeast winds will prevail into Tuesday in
the wake of a cold front. At this time expecting overall speeds
and wave heights to be below small craft thresholds until later
Tuesday and Tuesday night when wave action is expected to exceed
criteria. Will not issue headline yet but mention that a headline
will likely be needed in the HWO.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Collar
Tuesday Night through Monday...DDV



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