Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 020849
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LOOKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER AREA WITH PRECIPITATION STAYING WELL WEST
OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO MN...MOVING INTO NW WI OVERNIGHT...WITH
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM A BIT TODAY AND TONIGHT THOUGH
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REMAINS WELL WEST WITH THE STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS EXCEPT IN THE EASTERN THIRD WHERE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF THE COOL LAKE WILL HOLD READINGS DOWN. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE...WITH TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 50 IN THE FAR
WEST.

WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY AND AVOID THE MKX FORECAST AREA DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE.
HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT A LAKE
BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS... EVEN NEAR THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THE SLOW-MOVING AND WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
MOISTURE OVER ALL OF WI THIS PERIOD. THERE IS WEAK INSTABILITY DUE
TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT BE IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN WI... BUT A COUPLE OF MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SORT OF LLJ ENHANCEMENT WITH AN 850MB TROUGH. THUS... THERE ARE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS THIS WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITHOUT THE HELP
OF MUCH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS STALLS THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN WI ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEEPS IT RAINY WHILE THE
ECWMF SHIFTS IT INTO ILLINOIS WHICH DRIES US OUT. THE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE COOL NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE ECMWF PRODUCES A STRONGER SURFACE LOW WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
PRECIP OVER WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKER
IDEA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC



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