Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 091911
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
111 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOCUS IS ON ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM-HIGH.

SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS AS
LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER...INDICATING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES WILL
PROMOTE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO IN THE
WEST...SINGLE DIGITS CLOSER TO THE LAKE. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
TONIGHT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED TO LAKE ONTARIO. WIND CHILL VALUES AT
DAYBREAK WILL FALL TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AREA WIDE...CLOSE TO 20
BELOW IN THE NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM-HIGH.

THE THEME ON WEDNESDAY IS COLD. 850 TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BECOMES
MORE NEUTRAL THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH
EASTWARD AS WELL. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS...THOUGH THE PATTERN SUGGESTS SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUDS...THUS A PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE TEENS COUPLED WITH NW WINDS 10-15 MPH
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS MAXING OUT CLOSE TO ZERO.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST WITH STRONG NW UPPER FLOW PERSISTING. VERY CHILLY
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 925 TEMPS SHOWING ONLY SUBTLE
MODIFICATION. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO IA AND RIDGES INTO THE MID
MISS VLY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
250 MILLIBAR SPEED MAX DRIVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH MODELS
SHOWING A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WITH LIGHT QPF AHEAD OF NEXT ARCTIC
SURGE. WEAK SHOT OF WAA WITH MOSTLY SHEARED VORT. 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUED TREND OF 12Z RUN TO GENERATE A BIT MORE QPF AREA WIDE
THAN THE GFS OR GEM. WILL GO WITH BLENDED POPS FOR NOW AS GFS/GEM
IN AGREEMENT WITH LESS QPF AND CONFINED MORE TO THE SW AND SRN PTN
OF THE CWA.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH BUILDING
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS PERIOD. WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS WELL
BELOW ZERO FRI NGT INTO SAT MRNG. 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO -20C TO
-24C.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ESE FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE ON PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL
FEATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN TROUGH WHILE
THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A STRONGER MORE SOUTHERN LOW VCNTY MO. THERE
IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT 850 WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES IN SFC/850 LOW
PLACEMENT. SO WILL BE USING SUPERBLEND POPS AS THESE SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SRN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
SFC/850 LOW TRACKS WHILE THE GFS TRACKS SFC LOW/TROUGH ACROSS WI.
SO AGAIN DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

TERMINALS ARE IN A RELATIVE LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT COMPLETELY FILL BACK
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DO EXPECT SOME UPTICK IN COVERAGE
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KMSN...AS
A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD. CEILINGS
WILL HOVER IN THE MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRENDING TOWARD MVFR. VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SNOW SHOULD
ALSO BE MVFR...WITH INFREQUENT IFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES LOOK TO SCATTER FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH BROKEN CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THAT LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...EASING SOME DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE
THE HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE AS WELL GIVEN THE
NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...KMD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR


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