Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 110730
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
230 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

.Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

Surface low pressure will continue to push off to the east today
as high pressure remains centered just west of the area. Soundings
show plenty of diurnal clouds today, in addition to a fair amount
of existing clouds associated with the mid level wave rolling
through. The main question is whether we`ll see some light showers
from the thicker cu development this afternoon. The soundings
show a warm/capping layer at about 6-7kft. This limitation would
make it a struggle to get some rain. But, it`s close and we have a
mention already in the forecast, so won`t pull it out. If
anything does develop, it should be light and widely scattered.
The clouds and thermal trough overhead will keep temps in the
lower to mid 70s today. We clear out tonight with lower dew points
moving in. Lows will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday - Confidence...High
Mid level flow losing much of the cyclonic curvature with shear
axis lifting more to our north. At the low level surface high will
dominate. With the easing of the low level thermal trough there
is a WAA signal from the northwest. Should see highs well into the
70s with winds turning onshore near Lake Michigan.

Sunday through Tuesday Night - Confidence...Medium
Surface high largely dominates this period. Appears for the most
part a dry airmass prevails this period. Watching shortwave energy
from the northwest approach later Sunday into Sunday night. The
ECMWF and GEM are dry for Sunday while the GFS shows a fair amount
of QPF right within the ridge axis and this seems tied to some
suspiciously strong vort maxes out ahead of the primary trough
axis. Bufkit shows some mid level moistening but a lot of dry air
as well. So there is some mid level shortwave activity within the
model data that affects the area Sunday night through Monday night
with spotty and rather light QPF. However think the Superblend
pops are on to something keeping things largely dry. Mid level
ridging bubbles up again Tuesday into Tuesday night with the
surface high continuing to be well in control as well.

Wednesday and Thursday - Confidence...Medium
The return flow around the retreating surface high will give 925
temps a nudge upwards. There is some model differences with
respect to timing of shortwave energy and an associated surface
trough. This will be the next feature to watch for a better chance
of showers/thunderstorms. The ECMWF is quicker with this feature
bringing it through Wednesday or Wednesday evening while the
consensus of the GFS and GEM shows slower timing with
showers/storms more likely Thursday into Thursday evening. Things
will likely fluctuate some more but Superblend seems to be leaning
more towards the consensus of the latter (slower) solutions.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...We should see CIGS around the area this
morning hovering close to the MVFR level of 3kft. Some patchy IFR
fog is out there as well, but will dissipate shortly after
sunrise. By mid morning, warming temps and deeper mixing should
lift the CIGS to VFR levels where they will remain through the TAF
period. Clearing moves in this evening. A few light showers may
develop during the peak heat of the afternoon. No thunderstorms
are expected.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and waves should remain below small craft advisory
conditions through early next week. However, conditions will
approach criteria later tonight into early Saturday morning as
northwest winds become gusty for a time. The highest waves would
be out toward open water.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Saturday through Thursday...Collar



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