Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 170211 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
911 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.UPDATE...

BAND OF OPAQUE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AS MID-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AHEAD OF STRONG COMPACT VORT MAX RACING
EAST ACROSS NRN MN...WILL CLEAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND
OCCLUDED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE MS RIVER...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION
OF DRIER AIR BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AND MIXING WITH SURFACE
GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD
FOG...BUT WILL SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN LOW-LYING RURAL
LOCATIONS AND RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

BAND OF THIN...HIGH-LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF STATE
BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND OCCLUDED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH NOW
APPROACHING THE MS RIVER...AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT FOG AT TAF SITES...THOUGH PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KENW AND KUES. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WILL DROP IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO REACH KMSN AROUND 17Z...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. MODELS AT ODDS
ABOUT HEIGHT OF CLOUD DECK...BUT UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT MVFR AROUND
2500 FT WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
UPPER TROUGH DROPS THROUGH STATE...BUT NO LOWER THAN MVFR VSBYS AT
WORST.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGE EXPECTED TO START OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WEST WINDS
BECOME GUSTY EARLY FRIDAY IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NRN WI INTO NRN LOWER MI. WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS LOWER SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE LAKE...BUT THE
NORTH FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES UP INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS FINALLY
SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND TAKING THE LOW CLOUDS WITH IT. SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS ALL BUT THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS OF 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI
IN THE EARLY EVENING... ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHEAST WI AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THESE CLOUDS WOULD BE DUE TO AN 850-700MB THERMAL TROUGH AND A 500MB
SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM MID TO LATE
EVENING. THE HRRR...RAP AND NAM MODELS ARE KEYING INTO THIS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT WHILE MANY OTHER MODELS DO NOT. ALSO... UPSTREAM OBS ARE
NOT SHOWING THESE CLOUDS AND WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THEY
DEVELOP ONCE THE TROUGH GETS INTO SOUTHWEST WI THIS EVENING.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A VIGOROUS 500MB LOW AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHERN WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI. THE FIRST ROUND WILL
OCCUR MID FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND BRISK WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SECOND ROUND WILL COME THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE LOW CLOUDS BUT ALSO CONTAIN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER 50S ON FRIDAY DUE
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY ACROSS MI ALONG WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO SAT AM. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF LGT SHOWERS FRI NT. COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING DURING THIS TIME BUT IT WILL DECREASE BY SAT AFT
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. MO CLOUDY SKIES WILL THUS GIVE WAY TO MO SUNNY SKIES ON
SAT WITH TEMP GUIDANCES AND 925 MB TEMPS YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL SAT NT ALTHOUGH WEAK 850 MB WARM
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN LATE. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S AWAY FROM
LAKE MI WILL BRING WIDESPREAD FROST TO THE AREA.

SWLY FLOW AND INCREASED WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ON SUN AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NW. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN IS FORECAST SUN NT AND MON WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN PREVAIL WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUE-THU.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THE CLOUDS HAVE ALL BUT CLEARED SOUTHEAST WI AS OF 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHIFTS
NORTHEAST.

THERE IS A SUBTLE FRONT THAT COULD BRING CLOUDS TO SOUTHEAST WI FROM
MID TO LATE EVENING. MOST MODELS SUGGEST VFR CEILINGS BUT A FEW
SUGGEST MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON THESE DEVELOPING.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MN WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

MARINE...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FRIDAY MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SO
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES PERSISTING UNTIL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING



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