Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 262020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
220 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The unseasonably warm weather will hang on over the CWA through
Friday under an upper ridge that will build over the region
Thursday then weaken some as it shifts east on Friday. varying
amounts of high clouds will pass across but skies will be mostly
clear through Friday morning. A lee trough will deepen over the
high plains Thursday resulting in some breezy conditions around
the mountains Thursday afternoon through Friday but not too
strong. A shortwave will approach the area Friday night wil a weak
front drops south over the plains. The shortwave should bring some
scattered showers to mainly northern and western parts of the CWA
beginning Friday night. A bit of snow possible over the highest
peaks late Friday night with cold air generally lacking.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday - Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The main story in the extended forecast period will be the passage
of a strong mid-level shortwave and associated cold front sometime
from late Sunday through Monday. The GFS/NAM are both in agreement
with this feature, so confidence is high in a widespread high wind
episode over the CWA. The GFS H85 CAG-CPR gradients approach 70-80
meters by 12z Monday with a broad swath of 60 knot H7-H8 flow over
a large part of the CWA along with steep lapse rates. The ECM soln
is farther south with the system and would make warning level wind
a bit less likely, but still a very windy pattern. Strongest winds
per the GFS would occur over the wind corridors around 06z Mon and
spread out onto the plains as a strong bora by 12z with impressive
subsidence suggested by GFS omega fields. Precipitation chances w/
the fropa are not expected to be high, but a few rain/show showers
will be possible over western and northern zones.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

VFR conditions prevail. Gusty winds can be expected this afternoon
over the southeast Wyoming terminals, with gusts between 20 and 30
knots common.


Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Warm and dry weather will hold over the area through Friday. A cool
front will drop south across the plains Friday night bringing a
little cooler temperatures for Saturday. Some showers are expected
Friday night into Saturday. Windy conditions are then expected
Saturday night into Sunday around the mountains.




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