Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 040922
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
222 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW IN
THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...PRETTY STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE GRADIENT AT 1 AM ROUGHLY 14.5MBS. 06Z
850/700MB GRADIENTS OFF THE NAM WRKHGT PRODUCT AT 56/49MTRS
RESPECTIVELY AND ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 60/52MTRS BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. WYDOT SENSORS REPORTING STRONG WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS WHILE THEIR WEBCAMS ARE ALSO SHOWING POOR VISIBILITIES.
CURRENT HEADLINES LOOKING GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NO CHANGES.
BOTH INTERSTATE 80 AND 25 REMAIN CLOSED AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
CLOSED THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.

WE DO START TO SEE A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY LATE MORNING. GFS
700MB WINDS FALL FROM 55KTS AT 12Z DOWN TO 40KTS AFTER 18Z. MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO DECREASE BLOWING SNOW THOUGH AND WE MAY NEED TO
EXTEND HEADLINES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A
LOOK ONCE THE SUN RISES AND WE CAN SEE EXTENT OF BLOWING SNOW IN
WEBCAMS BETTER.

NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. STILL HAVE PRETTY GOOD CHANCES FOR MOST
AREAS TO SEE SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WITH
THIS SYSTEM. ONLY GETTING 4 INCHES THOUGH FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING FOR THEM.

THINKING WE WILL NEED MORE WIND HEADLINES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. GFS 700MB WINDS BACK UP CLOSE TO 60KTS WITH NAM CRAIG TO
CASPER 850/700MB GRADIENTS BACK TO 70/56MTRS BY 12Z SATURDAY. GFS
GRADIENTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH 74/65MTRS RESPECTIVELY. LOCAL
WRKBRX WIND PRODUCT SHOWING A 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WARNING
LEVEL WINDS AT BORDEAUX...SO IT IS LOOKING GOOD FOR HIGH WINDS IN
THE WIND PRONE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO HOIST A WATCH AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WYOMING ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK MOST
LIKELY AND MAINLY NORTH OF A RAWLINS TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.

SUNDAY...WINDY AND COLD DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT BASED ON PROJECTED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.

MONDAY...CONTINUED WINDY BASED ON PROJECTED LOW AND MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL LIMIT WARMING POTENTIAL
THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND PER HEIGHT AND
THICKNESS RISES.

TUESDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
CONTINUE TO RISE AND RESPOND TO RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING TOWARDS OUR
FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NORTHWEST HELPING THE SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOP FURTHER AND ALSO HELPING TO WARM THE ATMOSPHERE
AND CONTINUE OUR WARMING TREND PER HEIGHT AND THICKNESS RISES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

VFR OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
THROUGH THE WIND CORRIDORS OF SOUTHEAST WY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 50 KT BETWEEN CYS AND LAR
AND LAR AND RWL DURING THIS TIME. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DETERIORATING VIS/CIGS IN LIGHT SNOW/BLOWING
SNOW...INCLUDING SAA AND RWL. TERMINALS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL NOT BE IMPACTED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH A WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FIRE DISTRICT. STRONG WINDS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY WARM US UP SOME...BUT NOT TOO
MUCH AS COLD AIR REMAINS OVERHEAD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...GROUND BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
     WYZ106-110-116- 117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ101-
     103>105-107-109-113-115-118.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...GCC


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