Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 240556
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1056 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AS SKIES HAVE BECOME
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING AS
WELL...WITH ARLINGTON/BORDEAUX THE ONLY AREAS OBSERVING WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 MPH AT THIS HOUR. H85 KCAG-KCPR LLVL HEIGHT GRADIENT
FLARES UP TO AROUND 64 METERS AT 12Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE H7
GRADIENT REMAINS IN THE 40S. THIS SHOULD FAVOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
WHEATLAND ALONG HIGHWAY 34. AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT THESE STRONGER
WINDS WILL EVEN MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS BORDEAUX...BUT DID BOOST
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH THERE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

BATCH OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY PCPN BEING PRODUCED.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH MINS ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OR SO BOTH DAYS WITH MILD
HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DECENT MID-LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN BUT NOTHING
TOO STRONG. NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MONDAY WILL START OFF VERY WARM AND DRY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE TO NUDGE TEMPS INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S OUT WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD...PERHAPS NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK WAVE RIDES A TOP THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALSO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COULD SHAVE A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC
STRENGTHENING AND ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO OVERALL FORCING
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IN THE HIGH VALLEYS ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO LIKELY BE RAIN OR
RAIN-SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN TUES NIGHT- WED AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH H7 WINDS AROUND
50KTS PROGGED BY THE GFS AT 12Z. SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH WINDS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND PERHAPS IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WED MORNING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THRU THE PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KRWL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
22Z. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING THRU. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN AFTER 14Z ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON KBFF...KCDR AND KAIA. TOO ISOLATED TO GET SPECIFIC WITH
TIMING OR LOCATION NOW...SO HAVE TRENDED TAFS INTO VCSH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.  REMAINING FACTORS NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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