Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 032054
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE NORTH LARAMIE RANGE OTHERWISE
RATHER QUIET OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE IN RECENT DAYS
EXPECT TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION MAINLY AROUND THE MTNS
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.

WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS NUDGE
UP ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES WITH MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 90S. WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC TROF THAT SHOULD EDGE
EAST INTO THE PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ALONG THIS SFC
TROF BUT WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY RATHER
ISOLATED.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SAT NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SFC COOL FRONT
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
BUT BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM AS A COUPLE NORTHERN
FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH SURGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH.

STARTING OFF MONDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWFA IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL
SEEING SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT HANGING UP NEAR CARBON COUNTY. NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH PRETTY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AT 850MBS. WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING HIGHS
FOR MONDAY...PROBABLY STILL TOO HIGH IF THE STRATUS DOES PERSIST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND
PWATS CLIMB TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY. USED LATEST HRRR FORECAST FOR TIMING
ON CONVECTION AT KCYS AND KLAR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THAT COULD IMPACT
KBFF AND KSNY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WENT WITH VCTS WORDING IN THEIR
TAFS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A RATHER MOIST PATTERN EXPECTED. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SUNDAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN WARMER AGAIN
BY MIDWEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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