Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 050344 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
944 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

FOR THE MID EVENING UPDATE NOT A WHOLE LOT TO CHANGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MINOR TEMPERATURE TWEAKS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
BRINGING IN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS A LITTLER EARLIER THAN
FORECASTED NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
THEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE A BIT THERE DURING THE
DAY. WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WITH MAXES IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. CHANGES BEGIN
ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND LEAVES THE CWA
UNDER A SW TO SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TAT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SW CONUS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT
UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AIDED BY AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STILL
RELATIVELY WARM FRIDAY NIGHT SO ANY SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHEST PEAKS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE UPPER LOW WILL STEADILY MOVE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
ROCKIES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY. SATURDAY MORNING COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION
ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT-
MODERATE RAIN IN UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. MAY EVEN BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE MORNING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
PEAKS ABOVE 10KFT. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGING UP FROM COLORADO
AND INTO THE CO/WY/NE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A
RESURGENCE OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHEN
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK INSTABILITY. A FEW
T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT LOOK TO BE CONFINED MAINLY
WITHIN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE PLAINS WILL BE TOO
STABLE. OVERALL RAIN RATES ON SATURDAY LOOK LOW WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MOVING UP FROM COLORADO MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. STILL THINKING SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TO ROUGHLY 8-9KFT FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER PEAKS THROUGH SUNDAY.
WITH WATER LEVELS ALREADY SOMEWHAT HIGH ON THE LARAMIE AND LOWER
NORTH PLATTE RIVERS...COULD SEE PROBLEMS WITH MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THESE RIVERS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL OF AN INCH OR MORE
THROUGH SUNDAY. THINK THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE WILL SEE WATER RISES
AS WELL...BUT MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE SINCE CURRENT LEVELS
ARE RELATIVELY LOW. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
SITUATION AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS FOR MONDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS DRIER OVERALL AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THEN COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JG
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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