Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 270311
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
911 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

RADAR AND SHORT-TERM MODELS BOTH SUGGEST THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
ACCUMULATIONS THAT DO OCCUR WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AND WILL NOT
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AND LOWERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT COULD BE BLACK ICE THAT FORMS ON
AREA ROADWAYS DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN/SNOW AND TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CLOSED MIDLVL LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES. THE SNOW IS WINDING DOWN FOR AREAS
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS
GOING FOR THE MTNS AND CONVERSE COUNTY THROUGH 03Z. THE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT AT SHOWING MUCH OF THE MIDLVL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
COLORADO AND THEN CONSOLIDATING INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTER AROUND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE BEST FORCING STAYS OUT OF THE CWA. SO LOWERED
POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WHERE GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS WILL BE COMMON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S TOMORROW. YET ANOTHER
CLOSED MIDLVL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY
WITH LLVL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING BY AFTN. LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS THE SFC UPSLOPE DEVELOPS. PRECIP WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE
THE DEEP LAYER ASCENT ARRIVES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER BY THURS
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO BY DAWN FRIDAY WITH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING DECENT UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THUS WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE. LOOKS
LIKE TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. ON
FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT OVER EASTERN COLORADO...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH
LIFT FOR RELATIVELY HIGH POPS ACROSS MUCH OF FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH LESSER POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...COOL AND WET DAY ON TAP AS THE CLOSED LOW MEANDERS ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. TEMPERATURES STILL
QUITE COOL FOR LATE APRIL WITH CLOUD COVER AND FALLING PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY...LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WINDS AND TIME OF YEAR CONSIDERATIONS...WILL SEE AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-25.

MONDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE MAIN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH WITH DEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RESIDING OVER OUR COUNTIES. WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
NORTHWARD OVER OUR COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON...WILL SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED POPS...AND PERHAPS HIGHER.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT...AND WITH SOME
LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
BEST MOISTURE OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHERE HIGHEST AFTERNOON POPS
WILL EXIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 331 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

BECOMING IFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJM
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



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