Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 301005
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS THE REST OF THIS
MORNING. MOST RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING. GENERALLY A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING AS THE RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE
LOW. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND COOL AIR ALOFT AND MORNING SUNSHINE
DESTABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTEROON WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT GENERALLY
LOOKING FOR SHOWERS IF ANYTHING.

HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH A FEW SITES CLOSE TO HIGH WIND WARNING SPEEDS. LOOKING
MARGINAL AT BEST TO HIT HIGH WIND WARNING AT THIS POINT...BUT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING FOR NOW. THE OTHER WIND
CONCERN IS INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. 40 TO 50 KT WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. AS LOW
PRESSURE WRAPS UP SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE
SURFACE SO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TOUGH CALL WITH SO MUCH CLOUD COVER
AROUND THIS MORNING BUT THEN AGAIN ALLIANCE REPORTED A WIND GUST
OVER 60 MPH AT 3 AM.

SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE SHOULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MEASUREABLE RAIN
LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR THURSDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ALL LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WITH NO
CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. PERSISTENT DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. JET STREAM WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH ONLY ONE WEAK
WAVE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE POLAR JET STREAM DIGGING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...BRIEFLY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH POP BELOW 10 PERCENT AND EVEN AROUND ZERO PERCENT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...WARMEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
ALOFT PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST
DAYS...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW JUST PASSING THROUGH ALLIANCE
AT THIS HOUR. RAINFALL HAS SLOWLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY...WITH
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTHEAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM KDGW TO KSNY. BY SUNRISE...THIS AREA OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF KSNY AND KAIA WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS LOW AS IT
TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH VFR OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND INTO EAST CENTRAL WYOMING
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOWERS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE A DRY WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-095-
     096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML







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