Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 181724
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1124 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures with dry conditions are
  expected throughout most of the week.

- Precipitation chances increase towards the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A cool and crisp morning across most of the CWA as clearing skies
and light winds have lead to effective radiational cooling. A chilly
start will give way to a quick warm up as the upper-level low over
the Desert Southwest weakens and a ridge strengthens over western
CONUS. Warmer 700 mb air will be advected into the region. This,
along with sunny skies, and west to northwest downsloping winds will
allow temperatures to rapidly increase this morning. Highs for most
population centers east of the Laramie Range will make it into the
60s, with upper 40s for areas to the west. Looking at an even warmer
day on Tuesday as the upper-level ridge stays locked in place.
Continued sunny skies and downsloping winds will add to the warmth,
bringing temperatures in the North Platte River Valley and Nebraska
panhandle into the upper 60s! Highs along the Interstate 25 corridor
will primarily be in the 60s, with low 50s for areas out west.
Overall, looking like a pleasant few days with sunny, dry conditions
and above average temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

By the middle of this week, the Rex Block pattern over the western
CONUS will begin to breakdown with zonal flow settling in aloft into
late this week. Above average temperatures will continue with
afternoon highs Wednesday and Thursday in the upper 50s to low 60s
along and east of I-25. However, Wednesday will be a few degrees
cooler than Tuesday after a backdoor cold front earlier in the week.
A weak shortwave will pass across northern WY Thursday that will
bring gusty downsloping winds along the Laramie Range with those
warmer temperatures. This will lead to dry conditions and possible
elevated fire weather concerns. Latest in-house guidance continues
to show around 20% probs of high winds, but could still see wind
gusts around 45 mph at times Thursday.

Plenty of model uncertainty remains headed into the weekend with the
placement and timing of the next Pacific wave. Both the Euro and GFS
show quite different solutions for the evolution of this system
compared to 24 hours ago. Overall, both begin to bring increasing
PoPs Saturday with an initial shortwave, while the larger scale
trough digs into the Great Basin Sunday into Monday. As of now with
the 00z suite, both deterministic models keep the trough positively
tilted with more significant cyclogenesis occurring over the central
CONUS with post frontal upslope flow across the Front Range into
early next week. We will continue to monitor this potential system
and latest forecast trends. Additionally, NBM max temperature
interquartile ranges grow substantially starting Sunday with the
high degree of uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions expected to persist through the 18Z TAF period
with clear skies. Occasional wind gusts to 20 knots are possible
through the afternoon across WY TAF terminals.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...LEG


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