Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 032329 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
529 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...FOR THE EARLY EVENING AVIATION FORECAST RELEASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN WY PLAINS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING LEAVING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDS NIGHT. THIS COMPLIMENTS OF AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL HOLD ACROSS THE ROCKY MTN CHAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH MAX TEMPS WEDS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...AND IN THE 70S TO MID
80S ON THURSDAY...WARMEST OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. WINDS REMAINING
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO POP UP OVER THE MTNS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STORM.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS ARE THAT IT LOOKS TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND THE SFC LOW ON SATURDAY IS POSITIONED
FURTHER SOUTH. STILL LOOKS TO BE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TREKS UP FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS WYOMING. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY
WILL SPARK OFF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH LI`S READING MINUS 1 TO MINUS 2. A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL AIDE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR PROGGED TO BE ROUGHLY 30
KTS. LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING THO...MEANING A FEW COULD
PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS BUT LIKELY NOT MUCH MORE
THAN THAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY WILL SHIFT SFC WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH DEW
POINTS LOOKING TO INCREASE A GOOD 10 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS RATHER STABLE WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
FIRMLY IN PLACE AND THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO
COLORADO. SO IT MAY END UP BEING A MORE UPSLOPE DRIVEN...MODERATE
RAIN EVENT WITH A FEW CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
NEAR THE TERRAIN. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND
COULD DRIVE A FEW MORE T-STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
COLDER AIR OVERHEAD. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST SHOT FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWS AS THICKNESSES DROP TO 555 DAM OR SO
THROUGH THIS TIME. LINGERING SHOWERS IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CATEGORY EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WYOMING. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND GO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
WEATHER FACTORS NON-CRITICAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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