Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 251721
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1121 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. STILL MAINLY LOOKING FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE COVERAGE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND EAST
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DROPPED THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR CHEYENNE A FEW DEGREES AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVER ACROSS THE AREA...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CURRENT LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF WEAK
COOL FRONTS EXTENDING FROM AROUND CASPER WYOMING EASTWARD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA. COOLER
AIR IS BARELY NOTICEABLE WITH THE FRONT MAINLY DEFINED BY A
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
TO A POSITION NEAR THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
THEN RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME REMNANT MONSOON MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT FROM LARAMIE EASTWARD TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...BUT WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE STABLE AND
DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT TSTORM
CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS ALONG I80 ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

SUNDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...OTHERWISE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO
STATE LINE...THUS WILL SEE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...EVEN MORE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE...THUS EXPECT A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LATE DAY AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS SHUNTED FURTHER SOUTH OVER
COLORADO...THUS EXPECT A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY...SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
COLORADO...THUS ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR VSBYS FROM THEM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 135 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY
DUE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND LOW
HUMIDITIES...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I25. NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONES 301...304 AND 306
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR
NOW SINCE YESTERDAYS RED FLAG EVENT WAS VERY MARGINAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT




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