Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 212337
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
537 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VORTMAX NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
MONTANA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN COLORADO
MTNS AND ALONG THE WY/NEB BORDER GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BUT FAIRLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. SHOWERS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE UPPER IMPULSE AND A SFC COOL
FRONT. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR WEDS AS THE AIR
MASS IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. DRY WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. WARMER AGAIN THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS A BIT OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER A MILD COOL-DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM...WE EXPECT TO SEE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
BY SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN MANY AREAS...WITH
60S ABOVE 7000 FT MSL AND 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANGE TO THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  ON THE 12Z
UPDATES...THE ECMWF STILL APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS...BUT THE GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER IN
THE MIDLEVELS AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS IN
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE LESS ACCUMULATION WHERE SNOW
PERSISTS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING PRODUCING LOCALIZED
MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
WEATHER CONDITIONS GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL.  LOWEST AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL GET TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...GARMON
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RE






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