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000
FXUS65 KCYS 212151
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
351 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

A BIT OF MINOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAIN FROM IT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...LEAVING A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT WITH A
SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDS. AT THE SAME TIME
A SFC TROF WILL SHARPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY WITH A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER MAINLY THE NEB PANHANDLE. SHOULD SEE
BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED
INDICES IN THE -1 TO -2 RANGE AND CAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG
MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE. SEVERE THREAT QUITE LOW BUT A FEW
DECENT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE HIGHLY
SHEARED AND BASES FAIRLY HIGH AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN BE FOR WINDS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDS
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT STILL QUITE HEALTHY BREEZES LOOK LIKELY
WEDS THOUGH HOPEFULLY SHORT OF HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER MTNS WHERE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS BEFORE THE UPPER
TROF AXIS PASSES.  COOL TEMPERATURES WEDS NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SETTING IN. WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THURSDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED. IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ADVISORY TYPE WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 60S. WILL ALSO SEE A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SET UP
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE PANHANDLE AND GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND IS LOW. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT
MUCH IN QUESTION. COULD SEE ONE MORE WARM DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. GFE AND EC QUITE A BIT
DIFFERENT AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS PUSHING A CLOSED LOW MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WITH
BASES OF 7-10 THOUSAND FEET AGL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THIS AFTN WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION. FUELS NOT READY OVER
MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE PANHANDLE BUT OTHER THAN WIND CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED TO ATTAIN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RE