Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 230848
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
248 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPPER LOW OVER SW SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY
WITH A RATHER DRY WEST TO NWLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE PANHANDLE CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW AND
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TODAY
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST WEDS
AND THURSDAY AS A N UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NNE OUT OF THE DESERT SW
ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WARM FOR THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE AND MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL WY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CONTINUES WARM AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER BEGINS TO
CHANGE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...AND PROBABLY SUNDAY
AS WELL. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO VARY ON TIMING OF A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF MUCH SLOWER. FAVOR
THE ECMWFS SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS CLOSED LOW. WE NEED TO BE
WATCHING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IF THE ECMWFS SOLUTION COMES
TRUE. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...COULD BE SEEING OUR
FIRST MAJOR WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR CWFA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD EASILY WET BULB AND THE LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES COULD EASILY SEE WARNING LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL A WAYS
OUT THERE...BUT WE CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORING THIS EVENT.
LOOKS LIKE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES ARE WAY TOO WARM
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION. ELSEWHERE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AROUND SUNRISE BUT ANY FOG THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY ERODE
AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

NO MAJOR CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE A
BIT GUSTY OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHER FACTORS NON-
CRITICAL. LIGHTER WINDS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MIN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT
RANGE OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SE WY MOST DAYS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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