Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 301747
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW AT SUCH PLACES AS ALLIANCE AND
HEMINGFORD OUT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. GOING TO
GET MORE SNOW THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH TO GET
A MIXTURE. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. TOUGH CALL AS IT IS STILL RAINING IN
CHADRON...SO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS VERY IMPORTANT OUT THERE.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SEVERAL MORE INCHES CONTINUING THIS
MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE TODAY PERIOD AS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TREND IS DECREASING
BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. OF COURSE CHADRON IS STILL
REPORTING RAIN...SO AS EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BE LARGELY
ELEVATION DRIVEN AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. IN
FACT SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

BASED ON ASOS OBSERVATIONS...THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE IN LAGER
PART BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
THE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE
LOWERED TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST FROM THIS
STORM SYSTEM. MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE AND OTHER RIDGE TOPS. EVEN SHOULD SOME LOCALIZED PLACES
COME IN WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS...THE OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. AT THIS TIME MOST ROADS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SLUSHY TO
SNOW COVERED. BY MID MORNING THE LATE APRIL SUN WILL WARM THE
ROADS ENOUGH TO MELT MOST ALL SNOW OFF OF THE ROADS. THEREFORE THE
MAIN TRAVEL CONCERNS WILL BE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.
MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE ON GRASSY AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 OVER MUCH OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TODAY BUT CONSIDERING THE SNOW WILL BE WET AND
STICKY...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FEW DAYS RESPITE FROM THE COOL AND WET WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
CWA IN AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN FEATURING UPPER LOWS OFF THE WEST
COAST AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MAX TEMPS GETTING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING 70 OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANGES
BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AND THE WESTERN
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SW CONUS. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY WITH A DECENT DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
OVER THE AREA SO SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN FLYING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A COLD SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH SOME RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ116-117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-
     102-106>108-118-119.

NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ002-003-
     095-096.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML



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