Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 261048
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
448 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

TODAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM UTAH AND
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE RIDGE ALOFT TRANSLATES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AS THE NEXT WELL ADVERTISED NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING. ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE
AWHILE FOR LOW LEVELS TO BECOME MORE MOIST...IT APPEARS THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPARK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25...WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER EAST.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY OVERHEAD THUS KEEPING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT THOUGH LESS THAN
CHANCES NEAR PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE
AUGUST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPARK SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO A PASSING COLD
FRONT AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING AND THUS LESS AND LESS
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHICS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

STILL CONCERNS FOR STRONG WINDS SATURDAY OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS. DID BEGIN TO INCREASE SPEEDS
OUT THERE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT DO FEEL WE WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO INCREASE MORE.

700MB WINDS INCREASING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. GFS SHOWING 700MB WINDS OF 20-25KTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 25-30KTS SUNDAY. COULD BE A FIRE CONCERN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS FORECAST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FORECAST DOWN
TO 15 PERCENT IN BOTH CONVERSE AND SOUTHWESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH MONTANA. DRIER AIR WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. COULD BE
DEALING WITH RED FLAGS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

MOISTURE FROM THE 4 CORNERS AREA CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE
PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT KRWL AND KLAR
AFTER 20Z OR SO...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OFF THE LARAMIE RANGE INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AT KCDR AND KAIA. LATER TAFS WILL NAIL DOWN TIMING A
LITTLE BETTER FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ON
SATURDAY...HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS OVER
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...THUS ELEVATING CONCERNS. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE MAY HAVE A PROLONGED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN


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