Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 151819
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1219 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Today...Quite pleasant end to the weekend with dry northwest flow
aloft and plenty of sunshine. With 700 mb temperatures near 1
Celsius, expect high temperatures from the mid 50s to mid 60s at
lower elevations, with mainly 40s for the mountains. Low and mid
level gradients will relax somewhat, thus expect gusty winds to
decrease across our western counties this morning.

Tonight...Another clear and quiescent overnight with northwest flow
aloft and limited cloudiness. Will stick close to guidance
temperatures.

Monday...Warming trend continues with dry northwest flow aloft and a
moderating airmass as 700 mb temperatures reach near 5 Celsius,
yielding high temperatures from the mid 60s to mid 70s at lower
elevations, and 50s for the mountains.

Monday night...Clear and dry weather continues with low temperatures
even a few degrees warmer than Sunday night as the airmass
moderates.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

00Z medium range models/ensembles are in good agreement depicting
a zonal flow aloft to begin the long term, becoming southwest by
Thursday as Pacific trough approaches the west coast. Upper ridge
becomes the dominant feature over the eastern third of the CONUS,
with trough/cold front moving across WY Saturday.

Benign weather pattern will continue through Friday with above
normal temperatures and dry conditions. It will be rather breezy
for much of southeast WY Tuesday with west-southwest winds gusting
to 35 mph in the afternoon. Combined with low humidity and warm
temperatures, fire danger will be high. A weak front pushes south
across the plains Wednesday with slightly cooler temperatures.
Rather mild temperatures are forecast Thursday and Friday. Late
day showers will develop over the Snowy/Sierra Madres Friday,
spreading northward Friday night. Cold front moves across southeast
WY and the NE panhandle Saturday, with isolated showers over the
eastern plains and mountains. High temperatures Saturday will be
10-15 degrees cooler, along with breezy northwest winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with just some
high clouds increasing after 09z. West/northwest winds will
prevail today before lessening some tonight. West winds will
become gusty again after 17z on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Elevated concerns will be increasing today, and especially Monday
and Tuesday over mainly southeast Wyoming as afternoon relative
humidities approach and possibly exceed critical thresholds, along
with gusty winds. Fire Weather Watches may be necessary for
Monday and Tuesday afternoons, along with the possibility of Red
Flag Warnings.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



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