Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KCYS 151726
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1026 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

STARTING TO GET A FEW SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH 4-6 INCHES FROM KIMBALL TO SIDNEY AND OVER A FOOT
OF SNOW REPORTED IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THAT OBSERVATION OF A FOOT MAKES
SENSE SINCE THE BFF ASOS HAS REPORTED OVER 0.8 INCHES OF LIQUID IN
THE LAST 9 HRS. DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
A WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE GIVEN THE LATEST REPORTS AND
THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THIS AREA BY LATE
MORNING...CREATING QUITE A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW A DECREASING TREND IN
REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AN ELONGATED BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW STILL EXISTS FROM SIOUX COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO KIMBALL
COUNTY. SCOTTSBLUFF HAS RECEIVED OVER 0.55 INCHES OF LIQUID OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING SIX INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW IN SCOTTS BLUFF
COUNTY. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROWAL THAT ENHANCED
SNOWFALL OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE LAST EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE STRETCHING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN WILL REALLY TAPER OFF BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH
THIS PACKAGE WAS TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH 19Z. THIS AREA HAS GOTTEN THE MOST SNOWFALL AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH FROM SCOTTSBLUFF TO SIDNEY...SO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A CONCERN.

A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A QUITE COLD NIGHT AS
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS COME DOWN. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT DRY CONDITIONS.
A SFC HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON TUES WILL PROMOTE WEAK SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN FACT...WITH WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT SEE ANY
WINDY CONDITIONS AFTER THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SPLIT FLOW WITH MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON WED
AND WED NIGHT. ALL MODELS KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

A MOSTLY DRY AND VERY SEASONAL PERIOD SHAPING UP LATE THIS WEEK THRU
EARLY NEXT. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
MOVING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED...SO EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NT. THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SHOULD FARE A BIT BETTER WHERE A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TROF DEPARTS FRIDAY MAKING ROOM FOR A
FLATTENING SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO BUILD IN. A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE ENSUES.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SPLITTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AS A STRONG JET STREAK INTO THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER TROF LOCATED OVR
IDAHO. BY SUNDAY...THIS TROUGH CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW NR THE
ARIZONA/OLD MEXICO BORDER. ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO
CARRY ANY IMPACT ON THE AREAS SENSIBLE WEATHER. NORTHERN STREAM
LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING THE PATTERN TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL...CRANKING WINDS BACK UP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT. BEFORE THEN...REALLY DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL HOVER
VERY NR SEASONAL NORMS...LOW 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND UPPER
30S OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

WYOMING TAFS...VFR PREVAILS WITH GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED IFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT.

NEBRASKA TAFS...MVFR AND IFR PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...THEN WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK.  SNOW WILL COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING.  WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER
FROM THE RECENT STORM WILL BE ON THE GROUND FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS
WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ101-102.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR NEZ002-003-095-
     096.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...SAR
FIRE WEATHER...ZF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.