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000
FXUS65 KCYS 281800
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1100 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP AND REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
NE. WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASED MARKEDLY WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 55 MPH COMMON. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENSIVE LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP HIGH TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NE PANHANDLE WHERE THERE
WAS MORE INSOLATION...NO SIG CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE. WIND ADVISORY VERIFYING FOR WESTERN NE PANHANDLE AND THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 330 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WE HAVE PASSED THE PEAK GRADIENTS. LATEST WYDOT AND METAR
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A SLOW DECLINE IN SPEEDS THIS
MORNING...SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS IS BEHIND
US NOW. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PANHANDLE
THOUGH...AS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW WIND SPEEDS INCREASING OUT THERE.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

CURRENTLY...1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR CHEYENNE HERE THIS
MORNING...WITH 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO.
CURRENT CRAIG TO CASPER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MBS AT
1 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST CYS VWP SHOWING 50KTS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. WIND PRONE AREAS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEEDS.
BORDEAUX GUSTING TO NEAR 40MPH...A LITTLE LESS IN THE ARLINGTON
ZONE WITH LOW 30S. BEST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE GUSTS IN THE MID 40S ARE CURRENTLY BEING
REPORTED. LATEST WRKHGT SHOWING GRADIENT PEAKING OUT IN THE 09-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND WARNINGS GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING.

MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING INCREASING RETURNS OUT NEAR LARAMIE THIS
MORNING...IN FACT...LARAMIE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AT 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES STILL WARM WITH UPPER 30S AT RAWLINS...LOW TO MID 40S
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

700MB WINDS BEGIN TO EASE AFTER 12Z...DOWN FROM 55KTS TO 40KTS BY
18Z. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 40-45KTS AT 850MBS.
LOOKING AT 4-8MB 6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE PANHANDLE
AFTER 18Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 00Z.

TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS
700MB TEMPERATURES FALL FROM +9C YESTERDAY...BACK DOWN TO -7 TO
-8C TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
TO AROUND -2C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...COLD DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH TROUGHINESS ALOFT
OVER OUR COUNTIES...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN THE COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS.

SUNDAY...COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PRODUCING BRISK SURFACE WINDS DUE TO PROGGED GRADIENTS...ALONG WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -14 CELSIUS.

MONDAY...WARMING TREND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
NORTHWEST...INDUCING MORE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING...ALLOWING THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS TO EITHER MODIFY OR RETREAT OFF TO OUR EAST.

TUESDAY...CONTINUED SEASONABLE BASED ON PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR
NORTHERN LARAMIE...SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES IN MOIST FLOW
ALOFT...DRY ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTPOSSIBLE.
A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AT MOST TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 123 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDS WILL EASE FIRE CONCERNS
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. OUTLOOK FOR LATER THIS WEEK SHOWS
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...GCC