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000
FXUS65 KCYS 101025
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
425 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

ONE MORE WARM AND DRY DAY AHEAD...BEFORE SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW RETURN FOR TUESDAY. BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AS LEE-PRESSURES FALL AND THE SFC LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. H7 TEMPERATURES OF 2-4C WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...WITH EVEN SOME 70S OVR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EARLY AM SATELLITE PIX SNOW BROAD AREA OF MID
/UPPER- LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING THRU EAST CENTRAL WYOMING.
ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS MAY TEMPER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
TODAY...WARMER EARLY MORNING TEMPS MAY NEGATE THIS. BY TONIGHT...A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE PACNW THIS MORNING
WILL SWING INTO WYOMING...CENTERING ABOVE THE CWFA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC FROPA WILL OCCUR BY AROUND 03Z ACROSS
NRN AND WRN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY WITH STRONG LLVL CAA LEFT IN ITS WAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REACHED IN MOST LOCATIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
COOLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL LAG THE FRONT...HOLDING OFF OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ZONES UNTIL 06-12Z AND THE REST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z.
SHORTWAVE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE WILL PUSH AN INSTABILITY WELL AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SHUNTING IT SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SUPPRESS ANY BANDING CONCERNS OVR THE CWA ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAYS.
THAT SAID...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...A RESULT
OF THE LAGGING MID-LEVEL FRONT...UPSLOPE AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LEFT EXIT SUPPORT EARLY TUESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
LOOK COMMON OVR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MAYBE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE RIDGE. THE SNOWY/SIERRA
MADRE RANGES WILL FARE BETTER WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ANTICIPATED.
ALTHOUGH...WARM SFC TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUBSEQUENT SNOW
DEPTHS SOMEWHAT DUE TO MELTING. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA BY SUNSET TUESDAY...BRINGING AN EVENTUAL END TO SNOWFALL.
TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S...AND THESE
WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THRU THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.

THE SYSTEM SPLITS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY CLOSING
OVR THE DESERT SW AND THE NRN STREAMING SWINGING THRU THE MIDWEST.
AS A RESULT...WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

SYNOPTICALLY...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...THUS MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...NEXT PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM EASTERN MONTANA...THOUGH WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS AND WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MID MARCH EXPECTED BASED ON
PROJECTED THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY...PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...AND MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS...WITH HIGHER POPS OVER
THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY...AND SEASONABLY COOL WITH NORTH FLOW ALOFT
RETARDING THE WARMING TREND. MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS
WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WITH MVFR TO IFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 423 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE DISTRICT TONIGHT. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE TEENS TODAY OVR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT TONIGHT
WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE
AREA ON TUESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES ANTICIPATED OVR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA
MADRES. WARMING AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN