Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 250255
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
855 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE EARLY EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS. TRAILING
WEAK VORT LOBE PROVIDED LIFT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS FEATURE HAS MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL NE.
DRYING ALOFT WAS SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY...AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST WY AND WESTERN NE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WIL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RADAR SHOWED A WEAKENING TSTORM SOUTH OF RAWLINS.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MID EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LIKE USUAL GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT...USHERING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. THIS WILL BE A SHALLOW PUSH OF COOL AIR WITH
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY MODIFYING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKE IS OCCURRING IN
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY WORK EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MAIN CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITH BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY MONSOON MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND A LARGE UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR
TO DROP OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SFC HIGH THEN SETTING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HAPPEN TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A DRIER REGIME
RETURNS WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KEPT VCSH ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH AROUND 03Z BUT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH LATE EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 301 WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AND HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY RECOVER. CRITICAL TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ZONE 301 FRIDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS. ZONES 304 AND 306
WILL ALSO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH LESS WINDS SO NOT EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT COULD SEE BREEZY WINDS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...SML






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