Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 161626

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
926 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Issued at 922 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

We are sending out a quick update to cancel the Winter Weather
Advisory. Latest look at the web cams underneath the higher cloud
tops in eastern Cheyenne county are not showing much in the way of
snowfall. It appears as if the low level moisture is starting to
scour out due to decent subsidence. Should continue to see the
cloud cover erode during the course of the day across southeast
Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. &&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

An area of light snow and/or freezing rain continues to pivot from
the southern Nebraska Panhandle into far southeastern Wyoming this
morning. Snow is having a hard time pushing west into the southern
Laramie Range, likely due in part to dry north-northwest flow near
the surface. Any lingering threat of freezing rain along I-80 from
Sidney to Kimball should end soon as forecast soundings still show
cooling profiles through the night, but any snow on top of the ice
that has already accumulated will yield hazardous travel. The GFS/
NAM/ECMWF/GEM all show light precipitation backing further into WY
from 09z to 12z, then decreasing from NW-SE through 15z and ending
for all areas by 18z. HRRR composite reflectivity suggests this as
well. Additional snow accumulations should generally be an inch or
less, mainly over the southern Nebraska Panhandle. The Winter Adzy
for Snow/Freezing rain still looks good but expect we will be able
to cancel it early. Dry after today as the models show the central
Rockies in the middle of a split flow pattern w/ all of the energy
being pushed to the north or south on Tuesday. Low-level gradients
are progged to increase on Wednesday with lee side troughing under
divergent flow aloft. Breezy/windy conditions can be expected over
the Laramie Range and perhaps the adjacent plains as well, but the
winds aloft appear a bit too weak to support a warning-level event
for the BRX/VDW areas. Excellent downslope warming is expected for
Wednesday with all models showing 700 mb temperatures ranging from
+2 to +5 deg C, so opted to go several degrees above consensus MOS

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Pretty tranquil in the extended with dry weather, light winds and
seasonal temperatures. Next system to impact the area looks to be
Friday when a low pressure system tracks across Colorado. Pretty
faster mover, so not a lot of snow expected with this system.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 409 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Lower ceilings and snow for the southern Nebraska Panhandle
airports including KIBM and KSNY should last til around 15Z before
pulling off to the east. Northwest winds here at KCYS creating
dry downsloping effect. VFR all airports by late morning into the


Issued at 131 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

No fire weather concerns over the next several days with afternoon
RH values well above critical thresholds.




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