Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 240214
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
814 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

GETTING SOME PRETTY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
BORDEAUX JUST HAD A GUST TO 80 MPH A FEW MINUTES AGO. WENT AHEAD
AND STARTED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS NOW INSTEAD OF MIDNIGHT AS THE
WINDS ARE ONLY GOING TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. ALSO ADDED THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO A WIND ADVISORY
FOR SUNDAY AS THE NORTHWEST PATTERN THEY ARE IN IS FAVORABLE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT THERE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR SALT LAKE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF IT.  WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTN FOR AREAS TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.  HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS BUT STARTING TO GET CLEARING ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE.  SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE CWA
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE CWA. WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYERS AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.  HAVE GOTTEN A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 50
MPH OVER WESTERN CARBON COUNTY IN THE PAST HOUR WITH THE SHOWERS OUT
THERE.  CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER WYOMING OVERNIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED FROPA.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.  THE 850 MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT INCREASES TO
AROUND 80 METERS BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 50 KTS OVER
SOUTHERN ALBANY AND LARAMIE COUNTIES.  UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH
OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS AND DECIDED TO ALSO INCLUDE THE LARAMIE
VALLEY AND CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY.  MOS GUIDANCE AT LAR/CYS IS 25-35
KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN.  THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR
WOULD BE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD LLVL LAPSE RATES.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY IN MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGES WILL BE 3 TO 5 INCHES.  ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO
UTAH ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT BY THE LATE AFTN
AND EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST WY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE COOL AND
WET CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. WILL ALSO SEE
CHANCES FOR SNOW BUT MAINLY INTO THE MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE SOME SNOW
INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THIS TIME ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

SHOULD SEE A BIT OF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEKEND FOR THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. COULD HAVE SOME LOW CEILINGS OUT BY KRWL AS LATEST
HRRR SHOWING LOWER IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO THAT AREA AFTER
06Z. MAIN IMPACT THOUGH WILL BE HIGH WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH WINDS GUSTING
TO 35 TO 45 MPH.  COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.  LITTLE FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-117.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ115-118.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ019>021-054-
     055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



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