Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 161850
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1250 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Winds have increased into the central and southern Panhandle early
this afternoon and RH values have plummeted in a deep mixing
regime. Extended the Red Flag Warning to include central and
southern sections of the Panhandle where winds are currently
sustained or gusting to 20 mph at several sites.

UPDATE Issued at 837 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Update to add fire weather zone 306 to the Red Flag Warning for
this afternoon. Already seeing dewpoints crash to near 0F in
places such as Elk Mountain where the wind has started to come up.
HRRR and RAP model soundings reflect this drying well and indicate
that the area around Saratoga will likely be in critical fire
weather conditions for at least a few hours this afternoon as
deeper mixing develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Overnight water vapor loop depicted a upper trough axis over the
Midwest, and broad ridge over the western CONUS. A broad surface
ridge extended from the Great Basin to the Great Plains, with a
few embedded weak troughs. Some high clouds were spreading across WY.

The surface and upper ridge will be the prevailing features for our
CWA through the short term. Gusty downsloping westerly winds will
promote warmer than normal daytime temperatures and a dry air mass.
These conditions will increase the fire danger across much of
east-central and southeast WY today and Tuesday. Winds may gust as
high as 40 mph this afternoon over and downwind of the Laramie
Range, and 30 mph Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will be in
the 60s and 70s lower elevations, with 40s and 50s for the high
country.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

PLeasantly mild weather expected across the CWA pretty much through
the upcoming weekend with just one upper trough passing across Saturday
bringing a shot of cooler air along with some scattered rain and mtn
snow showers Friday night into Saturday. Daily max temperatures look
to be in the 70s over the plains through Friday before cooling to
the mid 50s to mid 60s Saturday, and a little warmer again Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions with gusty west to southwest winds continuing
through the afternoon hours this afternoon. Winds easing towards
sunset and are expected to once again pick up Tuesday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A dry and warm air mass will prevail early this week across the
districts. Critical fire weather conditions will exist along and
east of the Laramie Range this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon,
with gusty winds and very low relative humidities. Elevated fire
weather conditions will exist this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon
for lower elevations west of the Laramie Range. Slightly higher
humidities and lighter winds Wednesday will decrease the fire
danger.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ301-306-309-
     310.

     Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for WYZ301-309-310.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ312-313.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEL
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ



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