Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 022333
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
535 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE PANHANDLE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK STORM OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
EVENING BUT INSTABILITY PRETTY LOW. MAINLY DRY AND COOL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA OTHERWISE.

NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. 7H TEMPS
RISE ABOUT 4C EACH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS...TO ABOUT 5-10C BY LATE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY...AND INTO THE
70S WEDS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY...SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME...WITH 60S/70S WEST
AND 70S/80S EAST FOR THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS FOR
FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE MEANS FOR PRECIP HOWEVER A FEW
MOUNTAIN T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS SOME MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND UP INTO WYOMING SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS TIME. COULD SEE A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT. A RESURGENCE OF GOOD LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
COMBINED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL
CLOSELY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW.  TEMPS STILL LOOK WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SO MAINTAINED 40-60
POPS ON SATURDAY...WITH 30S FOR SUNDAY AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH NOON TUESDAY)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. CLOUD
BASES WILL DROP BETWEEN 5000-10000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN RAIN AT KAIA AFTER 02Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG
DEVELOPING AS WELL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NON-
CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY NON-CRITICAL FUELS. A
FEW SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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