Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 282059
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
259 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A BIT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR SRN MTNS. DO NOT SEE MUCH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST
INTO THIS EVENING AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA LATER TONIGHT
AND COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS FORM OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AS IT DOES SO.

MAIN ATTENTION WILL BE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS
AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION INTERACTS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AN DECENT
INSTABILITY. SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST FAVORED
AREA BEING SE WYOMING OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED. INDIVIDUAL STORMS LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING
WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FASTER WITH THE PCPN AND PRETTY MUCH CLEAR IT OUT OF THE CWA BY
LATE WEDS MORNING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BUT RECENT DRYNESS AND FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL THUS HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS
IF GENERAL QPF LOOKS TO BE HIGHER.  CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS COOLER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF THE WAVES RIDING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A
FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED IN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
OVERLY WARM EITHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...BUT WITH LIMITED CAPE (LESS THAN 500
J/KG) WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY:
A FAIR STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SURGE THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT...WE MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KTS WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO ABOVE
500J/KG. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY
IF THIS WAVE TRANSVERSES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE GFS
PROGS. TEMPERATURE WISE WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.





&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LATEST GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS WERE SHOWING THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL
VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...AIR MASS
OVER OUR TAF SITES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY 50 TO 75
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT...WE WOULD
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE LARAMIE
RANGE. HOWEVER...THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WHICH MAY
CAUSE A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE COMMENCES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONCERNS EXPECTED TO BE LOW OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
NON-CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WETTING RAINS LOOK
LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER AND CLOSE TO THE MTNS WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RE






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