Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 252148
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
348 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NEB WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE
CWA AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. OVERALL SHOULD SEE A GENERAL
DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT STILL ENOUGH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING INSTABILITY TO SET OFF AT LEAST SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS MAINLY OVER SE WYOMING NEARER THE MTNS. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO
NUDGE UP SOME TUESDAY WITH SOME SUN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY BE A BIT MORE CONVECTION FOR WEDS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC
NW AND SW FLOW OVER THE REGION CONDUCTS WEAK IMPULSES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE JUST EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE CWA ZONES WEDS AFTERNOON BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON AS A
FEW STRONGER STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY-MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF LLVL UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THU/FRI AFTNS. DO NOT EXPECT TO
SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH WEAK H5 FLOW / GENERALLY
LESS THAN 25 KTS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. RAISED
POPS A BIT WITH THE FROPA. H7 TEMPS DROP TO BETWEEN 0 AND +2C BY
12Z SAT...SO SAT SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
PCPN GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE. WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR SUN/MON WITH RIDGING
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WYOMING TERMINALS...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALONG THE
WYO/NEB STATE LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FARTHER WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING AREAS NEAR KCYS/
KLAR/KRWL THROUGH EARLY EVE. AS A GENERAL RULE...VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH 02Z.

NEBRASKA TERMINALS...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. IFR
VSBYS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT KAIA THROUGH 22Z. FOG/LOW STRATUS
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE FOR SEVERAL SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID TUE
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING PCPN COVERAGE. MVFR TO IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CIGS
AROUND 500 TO 1500 FT AGL FOR MOST NEB TAF SITES...ALONG WITH LOW
VSBYS LESS THAN 3 SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

NO CONCERNS WITH FUELS QUITE MOIST AND NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

ISSUED FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER IN THE WESTERN
NEB PANHANDLE DUE TO EXPECTED FLOODING FROM INCREASING RELEASES
FROM UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS AND CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM SCTD SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTRMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BUT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE ALL
THE EXCESS WATER DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...RE


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