Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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602
FXUS65 KCYS 111749
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1049 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWING A
BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING
FROM SOME ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NWLY UPPER FLOW.
SHOULD SEE SOME VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY FROM
THIS. OTHERWISE MILD TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH LESS WIND AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
NUDGES OVER THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY A PUSH OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...BACKING UP AGAINST THE MTNS OF SE WY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES...
MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COLD AIR WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK EAST
EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC WINDS
TURN EAST AND SOUTHEAST BUT RIGHT NOW NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH.
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER SATURDAY THEN NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE
AREA WILL SCOOT ACROSS LATER SATURDAY AND COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MTNS AND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK INTO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MEAN POSITION OF THE JET
STREAM NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS PATTERN...AS THE
EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO WYOMING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND RAPIDLY MOVING SECONDARY DISTURBANCE.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT LLVL
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING. KEPT POP HIGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH A MENTION
OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...THIS PATTERN IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE JET AXIS
WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEFORE THE JET DIGS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE
BY LATE NEXT WEEK. FAVORABLE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS NEARLY EVERY DAY. 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS SUSTAINED
AND HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLY NEARLY EVERY DAY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND HIGHER VALLEYS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ALTHOUGH IT
IS NEARLY 8 DAYS OUT...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT NEXT THURSDAY AS A 150 KT JET AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-35 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONGER INVOF THE WY MOUNTAINS. WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. VFR CIGS WITH MID CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATEST SREF/HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS MVFR-IFR CIGS/MVFR
VIS INTO NRN NE PANHANDLE INCLUDING CDR AND AIA LATE TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
FRONT DRIFTS SWWD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MINIMAL CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEATHER FACTORS AND
FUELS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP WESTWARD AND
AGAINST THE MTNS FRIDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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