Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 251020
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
320 AM MST MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will provide scattered mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms into next weekend. Daytime
temperatures will generally trend a few degrees above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery was showing another decaying
thunderstorm complex over far southeast Arizona and northern Mexico
early this morning. Debris cloudiness from this complex should
linger over the area through mid-morning before showers and
thunderstorms redevelop today. A more favorable flow pattern for
daily showers and thunderstorms will remain in place this week. The
upper high will initially be centered near the four corners region
today. Thereafter, models showed the high amplifying and becoming
positioned over southern Nevada by Thursday. Both of these locations
of the upper high typically favor an increase in daily thunderstorm
activity across the state. High temperatures will remain a few
degrees above normal even though more clouds and better rain
chances can be expected this week.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/12Z.
Few-sct clds at 10-14K FT AGL and bkn-ovc clds aoa 20K FT AGL thru
25/18z. Aft 25/18z...sct clds at 6-10K FT AGL and sct-bkn clds at 10-
15K FT AGL. Isold to sctd TSRA/SHRA dvlpg btwn 25/18z and 25/21z,
contg thru 26/06z. Hier chcs for TSRA/SHRA at KDUG and KOLS trmls
this aftn/eve. Brf wnd gsts to 45 kts and MVFR cond with the stgr
TSRA. Otrw, sfc wnd w/nw at 10-18 kts with gsts to arnd 20-25 kts
btwn 25/18z and 26/02z. Isold to sctd TSRA/SHRA wl ocr again Tue
aftn. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will occur into next weekend. Outside of gusty
thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain
driven and less than 15 mph. The exception will be over far eastern
portions of the forecast area today...roughly east of a the line
from Sierra Vista to Safford, where northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph
and higher gusts are possible during the afternoon hours through
midweek.

&&

.TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

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