Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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492
FXUS65 KTWC 090950
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES WERE
VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEPICTION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THRU FRI. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THRU TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WED INTO
THUR NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RETURN FRI. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SAT AND THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WEST COAST SUN-MON
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW EWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WERE ALSO QUITE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING A DETACHED WEAK UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SPUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY NEAR 20N/130W OR EVEN
FURTHER WESTWARD. THESE SOLUTIONS NEGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK VERSUS SOME PREVIOUS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SAT-MON.
ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE NOTED THAT
THE 09/00Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAINED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE
ARIZONA NEXT TUE INTO WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP THUR (FEB 18).

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF TEMPS
ACHIEVED MON...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10-15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT A DEGREE-OR-SO OF DAILY WARMING WED-FRI FOLLOWED BY VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS SAT. A FEW DEGS OF COOLING IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR SUN FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS NEXT MON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/12Z.
SKC THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WIND WILL MAINTAIN A SELY TO NELY DIRECTION
AT 5-15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS MAINLY 09/15Z THROUGH
09/21Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. RH LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM 9-18 PERCENT ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN
THE 20S OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN THE VALLEYS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LACKING AND RANGING FROM 35-45% IN ZONE 150 AND WESTERN
151 TO 45-60% ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OCCURRING FROM THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL GENERALLY PEAK LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA



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