Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 091603
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
903 AM MST WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NEXT WEEK. MOST STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS BUT SOME WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AT TIMES. SOME STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY SHOWS DYING COMPLEX OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND INTO NORTHWEST SONORA. NIGHT SHIFT WAS RATHER BUSY WITH
STORMS FIRING OFF OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS FROM YESTERDAY EVENING.

THIS MORNINGS KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS AN ATMOSPHERE THAT SEEMS TO HAVE
BEEN WORKED OVER FROM YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY. COOLER IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS AND PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT...IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET
SOME INSOLATION IN TIME TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER AREAS THAT SAW
PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
COMPLEX...SPECIFICALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES OF GREENLEE...GRAHAM
AND COCHISE COUNTY THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR WILL SEE STORMS
TRIGGER FIRST TODAY...AND THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST
ACTIVE. SO...THE INHERITED POP GRIDS THAT SHOW THE BEST CHANCES OUT
EAST AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH 00Z LOOKS GOOD...
THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z...BUT STILL SCATTERED
IN NATURE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THESE
READINGS ARE 4 TO 6 DEGS COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY FOR CENTRAL
LOCATIONS...BUT ARE AROUND 1 TO 3 DEGS WARMER FOR AREAS OUT EAST
TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. GIVEN THIS COOLER START FOR THE TUCSON
AREA AND WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING OVER TUCSON FROM THE
DECAYING COMPLEX TO THE WEST...THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY...AT
LEAST FOR A WHILE TODAY.

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 10/18Z.
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER 09/18Z. SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL OCCUR
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH
+TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 45 KTS.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND 8-15K FT AGL. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOTS OF ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS FROM MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE CENTERS LAST NIGHT WITH SEVERAL RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES STILL
BOUNCING AROUND OUT THERE. WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE AND A DECENT FLOW
WE`RE HAVING OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OF
THE SEASON. ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY WHEN YOU HAVE A NICE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FIELD ON THE PERIPHERY OF MAJOR FEATURES.

WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT DEBRIS THIS MORNING WE WILL TEND
TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS LATER
TODAY. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE AND A MODEST EASTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD STILL ALLOW THE SKY ISLANDS TO FIRE...AND THE EASTERN
AND FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS ON THE EDGE OF THE REMNANT COMPLEX
CIRCULATION (WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE WEST OF TUCSON LATER THIS
MORNING) WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY BUSY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST
EMPHASIS FOR TODAY AFTER THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL BE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN AREAS. A MORE GENERAL COVERAGE PATTERN IN THE EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS HELPING SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS
RESET...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO GO BONKERS WITH MORE LIMITED SOLAR
INSOLATION.

WATCH FOR US TO OPEN UP IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SOLID
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WAVE ACTIVITY BY THIS WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE
REALLY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT`S GOING ANYWHERE ANY TIME SOON EVEN AS
SOME TROUGHINESS TRIES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WEST COAST THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH AS IT RECONSOLIDATES
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR AREA IS PERFECT FOR MORE PRONOUNCED
EASTERLY WAVE ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY AS THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT BACK
NORTH OF US BY SUNDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE MEDIUM RANGE
BIG PICTURE WELL WITH US TO PROVIDE MORE DETAIL FOR MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR THIS PARTICULAR NECK OF THE WOODS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN





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