Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 142200
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... STILL LOOKING AT GUSTY EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN SPEED THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN
THE THINKING AS THE AIRMASS REMAINED LESS THAN DESIRABLE FOR
SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING SOME CLOUD BUILDUPS IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT NOTHING IN
TERMS OF RAIN BEING DETECTED BY RADAR YET. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
HURRICANE ODILE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RESURGENCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK
HAS ODILE HUGGING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND WEAKENING
NEAR THE BAJA SPUR BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER IDEAL TRACK TO
FORCE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. LATEST MODELS
SUGGESTED THAT THIS INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
MOISTURE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLOODING BECOMING A CONCERN BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
TRACK OF ODILE WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE TRACK OF NORBERT WHICH AIDED
IN THE FLOODING THIS PAST WEEK...THE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE LACKING. THAT SAID...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
COMPARE THE OUTCOME OF THIS PAST WEEK TO WHAT MAY EVOLVE WITH THE
PROJECTED WEATHER SCENARIO THIS WEEK. THIS LACK OF DIRECT MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARED TO BE REFLECTED IN THE
MODEL QPF VALUES WHICH CONTINUED TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE PAST RAIN EVENT. NONETHELESS...A WET PERIOD WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THAT SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL
LINGER PAST THURSDAY...BUT IMPROVING WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/00Z.
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS.  THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE WINDS
DECREASING A BIT AS A RESULT.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED LATE TODAY WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  A GREATER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY...BUT THEN STILL REMAINING SCATTERED.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE EASTERLY BREEZE AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.  IT
WILL EASE UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING NEAR THE
WHITES AND NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER WITH A BIT MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THEN ALL FOCUS GOES TO THE INCREASE MOISTURE AS MAJOR HURRICANE
ODILE EDGES NORTHWARD.  DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FORCED
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.  THEN THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.  TIMING FOR THE MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION REMAINS  QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE A DOWNWARD TREND FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES
THRU THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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