Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 012132
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
WILL THEN KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
DEVELOPING TODAY DUE TO THE RAIN COOLED AIRMASS IN PLACE FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SOME
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THAT A SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA WILL HELP PUSH DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAN LAST WEEK WITH READINGS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST KTUS INTO THE
EVENING THEN DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ONLY A MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KTS MAY
OCCUR WITH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL GE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A BIT OF AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE ACTIVITY EACH DAY.  WITH SW FLOW ALOFT STORMS WILL GENERALLY
MOVE TOWARD THE NE OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF OUTFLOWS.  FOR THE MOST
PART STORMS WILL BE DECENT RAINERS WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-40 MPH
RANGE...WHILE A COUPLE EACH DAY WILL BE STRONGER.  THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10-15
MPH BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SW FLOW ALOFT TO
CAPTURE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND DIRECT THAT MOISTURE UP ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR PERIODS OF ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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