Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 231007
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
305 AM MST Sun Apr 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Continued dry conditions with warmer than normal
daytime temperatures through Wednesday. Locally gusty east winds
will occur tonight into Sunday morning, then gusty mainly west
afternoon winds will prevail during the upcoming week. A weather
system north of the area is then expected to bring a chance of
showers with a few thunderstorms mainly to the White Mountains
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear to mostly clear sky prevailed across the area
this morning while a band of cirrus level clouds was moving across
southern California. Expect these clouds to move across the area
later this morning into this afternoon. Once again the main story of
the day will be the well above normal high temperatures with
readings similar or slightly warmer than Saturday. Breezy this
afternoon, especially from Tucson east and south.

The upcoming work week will be dominated by breezy to windy
conditions along with a gradual cooling trend. Fire weather concerns
each day which is addressed in the fire weather section below.

Models coming in line for late in the week stronger system that may
bring a slight chance of showers to mainly the White mountains.
Dry conditions are forecast to return area-wide next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z.
SKC thru 23/17z then band of cirrus level clouds AOA 20k ft AGL will
move across the area thru end of valid pd. Sfc wind E-SE 8-15 kts
with ocnl gusts to 25 kts thru 23/18z then bcmg W-SW 12-20 kts with
gusts 25 kts. Sfc wind then diminishing to less than 10 kts and
terrain driven aft 24/03z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with warmer than normal daytime
temperatures will continue through Wednesday. Gusty east winds from
Tucson east this morning followed by gusty southwest winds this
afternoon. Somewhat stronger southwest winds are expected Monday.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning through Monday
evening for fire weather zones 151 and 152. The combination of
strong and gusty southwest winds, relative humidity in the single
digits to lower teens, and a high fire danger may create critical
fire weather conditions.

Critical fire weather conditions may also occur Tuesday into Friday,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours, and particularly
east of Tucson. Field crews are strongly encouraged to monitor
subsequent forecasts for additional Fire Weather Watch and/or Red
Flag Warning issuances.

A weather system north of the area may also bring a chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms to the White Mountains Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
   AZZ151-152.

&&

$$

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