Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 030412

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
912 PM MST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will move across the region later today
into Saturday, resulting in a chance of valley rain and mountain
snow. Dry conditions return Sunday and Monday. Another system will
then brush the state on Tuesday of next week which will result in a
slight chance valley rain and mountain snow mainly to areas east of


.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery showed the upper low centered south
of Sells, Arizona over northern Sonora Mexico late this evening. The
upper low in combination with deeper moisture streaming northward
into Arizona will lead to more showers developing through tonight.
Latest models show the upper low tracking farther southeast
overnight with the precipitation chances shifting eastward out of
the area by Saturday evening. That said, the current forecast looked
in good shape so no updates necessary this evening. Please refer to
the additional sections for more details.


.AVIATION...Valid through 04/06Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 7-12k ft AGL with SCT-BKN cirrus above. FEW-SCT -SHRA
this evening into Saturday at all terminals, with the best chances
near KDUG/KALK/KFHU. SWLY sfc wind decreasing to less than 10 kts
overnight. ELY/SELY sfc wind 8-12 kts with gusts to around 20 kts on
Saturday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system will affect the region
into Saturday, resulting in a chance of valley rain and mountain
snow especially south and east of a Tucson to Safford line. This
system may also produce some gusty east winds. Dry conditions are
expected behind the system Sunday and Monday. Another system may
impact the region Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.


.PREV DISCUSSION...Models indicate that as the low slowly moves
southeast into northern Mexico late today through Saturday, we will
see a few showers develop ahead of the low, with the bulk of the
activity over Cochise county later tonight into Saturday.

The mountains of east central Cochise county, specifically the
Chiricahua mountains could see snow amounts ranging from around an
inch to perhaps 4 inches on the highest peaks. The showers will
taper off as they move southeast into northeast Mexico late Saturday
through Sunday.

A brief respite from the clouds and showers late Sunday into Monday
before a return to showers late Monday through much of Tuesday, with
dry weather returning late in the week as dry zonal flow develops
across the Desert Southwest.

For Tucson, high temps generally 1 to 3 degs below normal through
Thursday, then slightly above normal Friday. Low temps will
generally be near normal through the forecast period.






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