Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 260916
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
216 AM MST TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES. A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH ANOTHER
SERIES OF STORMS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AND A CHANCE
OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE WARMING
UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SRN UTAH AT THIS TIME. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...MUCH
OF NEVADA...UTAH...COLORADO AND ESPECIALLY WYOMING.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY.

MODELS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY OCCURRING MAINLY JUST EAST OF
ARIZONA ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON THE BREEZY SIDE RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER WITH NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY HEADLINES.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT MORE MOISTURE
WITH MODELS SHOWING PW`S INCREASING TO BETWEEN 0.50-0.70 INCHES FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF MY FORECAST AREA. GRIDDED MODEL POPS SHOW THE BEST THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE TUCSON AREA IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES AND FROM TUCSON
WEST...ALBEIT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THAT AREA.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE...MOSTLY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW END SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED. BY THAT TIME THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER EXTREME SE ARIZONA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO A POSITION
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER IMPULSE UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DIVE
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY SUNDAY AND SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...THEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY FOR THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH THE STATE.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY AS THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
TRIES TO PUSH EAST AS A RIDGE SLOWLY NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD (EARLY NEXT WEEK)...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO
5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...LOWS WILL HOVER A COUPLE OF DEGS EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/12Z.
SFC WINDS AT MAINLY LESS THAN 12 KTS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THIS
MORNING...WITH WLY/NWLY GUSTINESS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE E OF KTUS WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 18 KTS AND A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS.
EXPECT WINDS TO LESSEN SOME AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL BE SKC TO
PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU THE PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT LESS WIND TODAY AS COMPARED TO
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY BE MET FOR A FEW HOURS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 152.

BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE THE RULE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 152. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OF I-10 THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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