Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 102228

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
328 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system off the Baja California
coast this afternoon will move over northern Mexico Monday into
Wednesday generating a very light shower or two near the
International border of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. Otherwise
conditions will be dry with above normal temperatures continuing
through the upcoming week.


.DISCUSSION...Mostly cloudy conditions will continue across the
area through Monday night as an an upper low, currently near the
Baja Spur, moves east into Sonora Mexico. As this low moves east
it will draw up some higher PW values toward the International
border areas where a few sprinkles are possible Monday afternoon
and night mainly from Nogales east.

The upper low will meander across Sonora Mexico through Wednesday
with cloud cover decreasing across the area. NW flow across the
area for the remainder of the work week into next week.

High temperatures will be above normal through week into next

On a side note, the overnight cloud cover produced a warm low
temperature at the Tucson airport of 57 degrees. If this hold
through midnight, this would tie for the warmest minimum
temperature for December 10th.


.AVIATION...Valid thru 11/00Z.
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period, with FEW-
SCT clouds at 10k-15k ft AGL developing aft 11/08Z. SFC wind
ELY/SELY at 12-18 kts gusting to near 30 kts. SFC wind diminishing
this evening, with ELY/SELY SFC wind at 8-13 kts aft 11/03Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Aside from a slight chance of showers late Monday
into Tuesday across far southern Graham and Cochise counties, dry
conditions will persist the next seven days. 20-foot winds will
be east to southeast into Wednesday, with sustained wind speeds
today at 10-20 mph and gusts to between 20-30 mph. A few locations
may briefly approach critical fire weather thresholds today, but
conditions are not expected to be widespread, nor long-lived. Wind
speeds are then expected to be less than 15 mph the rest of this





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