Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 010438
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
938 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 CONTINUES FOR PINAL AND
PIMA COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.

STRONGEST CELLS CURRENTLY ON RADAR ARE NEAR GREEN VALLEY AND ARE
STRADDLING THE PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY LINE. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE WEST AT 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UNTIL 945 PM MST. SHOWERS THAT
ARE HEADING WEST OVER THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION HAVE BEEN DECREASING
IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO.

ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM MST THIS EVENING. THE AREAS INCLUDED IN THE
ADVISORY COVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...EXCLUDING THE
TUCSON METRO...ALL OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
COCHISE COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH...ESPECIALLY FROM AMADO
TO MADERA CANYON TO NORTH OF SONOITA. IN ADDITION...HEAVY AMOUNTS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE T.O. NATION NEAR KITT PEAK.

INHERITED POP FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING AS
WELL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THAT SAID...DO NOT PLAN ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE POP FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS NEED SOME
WORK...SINCE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY.
WILL TWEAK THESE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RECENT TRENDS.

FOR INFO REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
SCT TO NMRS TSRA/SHRA THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLD TO SCT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BETWEEN 4-
7K FT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TSRA. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP PROPAGATION INTO
WESTERN DESERTS OVERNIGHT...THE ORIENTATION OF LARGE SCALE FLOW
STILL FAVORS SOLID CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE WAKE OF THE EASTERLY
IMPULSE SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY...UNDER
SOME MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO UTAH.
A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE PATTERNS TEND TO
EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA. A BUSY BUMPY MONSOON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/LADER



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