Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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720
FXUS65 KTWC 280939
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
238 AM MST THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...MOSTLY TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 28/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW AN
UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SRN NEVADA. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW THAT COVERS
PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...MUCH OF NEVADA...UTAH...COLORADO...AS
WELL AS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

RADAR MOSAIC FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS SRN UTAH AND NRN ARIZONA TODAY...REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN EXITING INTO SRN COLORADO AND NRN
NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ON THE HEELS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS
ANOTHER JUST UPSTREAM OVER NEVADA THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS
ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE
MOSTLY JUST OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE...AND SOUTHEAST GRAHAM
AND SRN GREENLEE COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS
MODIFIED YESTERDAY TO INCLUDE MORE REAL ESTATE FARTHER TO THE WEST
AND TO UPGRADE IT FROM A WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER AND WWA SECTIONS BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT THE COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. BY
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN WILL HOVER WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOW WILL
BE AROUND 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.
SCT CLOUDS AOA 15K FT AGL WITH DECKS LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. EXPECT SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL BY MIDDAY TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA AFT
28/17Z...MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF KTUS. LIGHT SFC WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME WLY/SWLY AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AFT
28/14Z...THEN INCREASE TO 18-28 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KDUG...KALK AND KFHU.
WINDS WILL RELAX LATE THIS EVENING AND BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY RESULTING IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 20-FT WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 12 TO 17 PCT RANGE...SOME AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST TODAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 151 AND MOST OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST OF TUCSON TODAY AND FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. EXPECT AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LESS WIND FORECAST TO OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST TODAY FOR THE
    SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF AZZ151 AND MUCH OF AZZ152.

    WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST TODAY FOR AZZ503-507>513.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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