Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 270958
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
258 AM MST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST
AND SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...27/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM CHIHUAHUA MEXICO
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN COLORADO. MEANWHILE...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IDAHO...UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THAT MEANS CLOUDS ARE
GENERALLY 10-15K FT RANGE AND EXTEND FROM JUST TO THE WEST OF TUCSON
AND EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE TOHONO
O`ODHAM NATION AND AREAS FARTHER WEST TOWARD AJO AND ORGAN PIPE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM VARIOUS SOURCES INDICATE THAT CURRENT
VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1.2 - 1.6 INCHES. WITH MODELS
INDICATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH THE U OF A WRF/NAM &
GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWING ACTIVITY REMAINING MOSTLY FROM TUCSON
EASTWARD...DID NOT CHANGE INHERITED POP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND THE HIGH IN RESPONSE
SHIFTS TO A POSITION OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN MOISTURE FOR A
LESSENING OF RAIN CHANCES...WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING AGAIN GENERALLY
EAST OF TUCSON TO NEW MEXICO. A SIMILAR FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY.

BY SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...
ARIZONA WILL BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH
MODELS SHOWING A PLUME OF MOISTURE PULLING UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
PARTS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND THEN TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
SCT-BKN LAYERED CLOUDS WITH BASES GENERALLY 8 TO 13 KFT. SCATTERED
-TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 27/21Z WITH A FOCUS FROM
KTUS SOUTH AND EAST. TSRA ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER 28/04Z. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
STRONGER STORMS. OUTSIDE OF TSRA INFLUENCE SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS FIRE
ZONE 150 FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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