Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 300430
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A
MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ONE PULSE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A SEVERE WIND GUST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT
PIONEER AIRFIELD NEAR SIERRA VISTA. AS OF 830 PM...ALL IS QUIET IN
MY FORECAST AREA. RADAR WAS SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOT.
ON THE EVENING UPDATE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE INTNL BORDER
WHILE REMOVING POPS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE OTHER ITEM I WILL BE
UPDATING WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THAT THEY
ARE NOT HOT ENOUGH ESPECIALLY WITH DRIER ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND
UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD. ECMWF...CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS WERE CORRECT
FOR HIGH IN TUCSON TODAY AND THEY ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE ALL
NOT HOT ENOUGH EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY NR INTNL BORDER E OF KOLS TIL
30/09Z. OTHERWISE...OCNL BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY E OF
KTUS THRU 30/11Z THEN CLRG. SFC WIND MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO
WED MRNG. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA MNLY S-E OF KTUS WED AFTER 30/19Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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