Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 190930
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 19/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WITH AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY BRINGING JUST AN INCREASE IN MOSTLY
MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
EARLY THURSDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DEPICTING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT QPF VALUES...JUST A
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM KICKS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND BRUSH THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THEREAFTER...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR DRY WEATHER AND A WARM-UP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.
THEREAFTER...HIGHS NEAR NORMAL. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 15-20K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL ELY/SELY GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF KTUS THIS MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
UPPER GILA VALLEY WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE STRONGER WINDS.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LESS WIND WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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MOLLERE





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