Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 241513
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
813 AM MST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR BY MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 15Z IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT
THIS AFTERNOON 8-12 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL...OR NEAR RECORD LEVELS. THE
KTUS 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGS F TODAY...
WHICH MATCHES UP WITH ONGOING FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIURNALLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE
AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. DIURNALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SET IN AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY TODAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AND MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

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