Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 252230
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 PM MST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK FROM TUCSON INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SE WYOMING SWWD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EWD INTO NEW MEXICO.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA TUE...THEN FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA MIDDAY WED. MOISTURE MOSTLY ABOVE 500 MB WILL MOVE INTO
WRN SECTIONS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TUE INTO WED. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUE-WED WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MAINLY THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AROUND MIDDAY THUR. THUS...DECREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT AND THUR
MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES THUR AFTERNOON AND THUR NIGHT. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE WEST COAST FRI WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN CONUS SAT-MON. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPS TUE-THUR WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF NORMAL...
THEN ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL PREVAIL FRI-MON. THE FIRST 100
DEG TEMPS FOR TUCSON MAY OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE
FAVORED DAY OF OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD ENDING
AROUND 04Z-06Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-
12K FT AGL THIS EVENING...THEN CLEAR SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE
20K FT AGL AFTER 26/06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SWLY TO NWLY AT 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.