Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 271516
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
816 AM MST WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN AREAS. CHANGES ARE MINOR...WITH THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE THE ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOME VALLEY
AREAS. MORNING TWC SOUNDING ALONG WITH LINGERING MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE NECESSITATED THE BOOST IN POPS. FULL AFD TO FOLLOW AROUND
9AM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM MST WED AUG 27 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A PRONOUNCED DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THIS
DRYING TREND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK IN TUCSON THIS WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH UTAH WAS
TRIGGERING SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTED THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... LINGERING MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND MORE SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THAT SAID...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY STARTING TODAY. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALSO GIVE WAY TO WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH PROJECTED HIGHS
FOR TUCSON NEAR THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND.

AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z.
A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A
THUNDERSTORM MAY IMPACT BOTH KOLS AND KDUG BETWEEN 27/21Z AND
28/03Z. HOWEVER SINCE THE CHANCE IS LESS THAN 15%...WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY TSRA IN THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SFC WINDS VARIABLE TO 10
KTS...EXCEPT VICINITY OF AFTERNOON TSRA WHERE GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

FIRE WEATHER...A DRYING TREND STARTS TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS RELEGATED TO MOSTLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER RH LEVELS...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A BIT OF A MODERATION IN
RH LEVELS BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WARM.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANTIN

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