Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 101533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
835 AM MST Thu Aug 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will continue to move back into southeast
Arizona the next few days. This moisture return will lead to an
upswing in shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Plenty of moisture around this morning with PWs
ranging from 1.2" far east to 1.8" far west.  Clouds are thinning
which is needed for this afternoon.  Big bonus is the MCV over the
gulf near the Isla Tiburon that is moving north.  This is forecast
to move roughly north and end up over western Pima county this
evening.  That puts us in a favorable location for lift and with the
available moisture and hopefully instability with some more
sunshine, looks like it could be an interesting afternoon and
evening.  Both UA 06Z model runs paint a similar picture with an
explosion of storms and a quick look at the WRFRxx shows the same
thing.  HRRR is unimpressive but that is not unexpected either this

At this point we feel the current forecast is underdone with respect
to storm coverage and will be adjusting pops up and adding locally
heavy rain wording.  Updated grids will be coming out soon.  Areas
east of Tucson have potential for strong winds as well with DCAPE
already sitting at 1200.

Not dealing with the rest of the forecast at the moment and will
look at that further for the afternoon package.  It will be active
through the weekend.  Cerniglia


.AVIATION...Valid thru 11/18Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 9-13k ft AGL with SCT-BKN layers above thru
10/18Z. SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-12k ft AGL this afternoon/evening with
scattered to numerous TSRA/SHRA persisting thru 11/05Z. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities near stronger TSRA. Strong and gusty
outflows possible with TSRA, otherwise SFC winds generally less than
12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Looks like it will be an active thunderstorm day
today with plenty of moisture and a disturbance to help kick things
off. Thunderstorm coverage will continue to be fairly high through
the weekend, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across much of southeast Arizona. Outside of any strong thunderstorm
outflows, 20-foot winds will mainly be less than 15 mph. Relative
humidity values (both afternoon minimums and overnight maximums) are
expected to increase into the upcoming weekend as moisture levels
increase across the area.





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