Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 180441
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
940 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON
INTO THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 30-50 DBZ ECHOES FROM
JUST SOUTH OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. THESE ECHOES ARE COINCIDENT
WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AS DEPICTED VIA IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION VIA KEMX WSR-88D AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS JUST
SOUTHWEST OF NOGALES. TRAINING ECHOES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING/HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY...INCLUDING NOGALES...AS WELL AS SWRN COCHISE COUNTY...DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS ENHANCED-V SATELLITE
SIGNATURE SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS PRIMARILY SEVERAL RUC
HRRR SOLUTIONS...HAVE REDUCED POPS FROM TUCSON WWD INTO THUR. HAVE
ALSO ELIMINATED PIMA/PINAL COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM TUCSON WWD...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOR
LOCALES EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO THUR. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG
THRU MID-MORNING THUR FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON. HAVE ALSO INSERTED PATCHY FOG THRU MID-MORNING THUR FOR ERN
PIMA COUNTY INCLUDING TUCSON. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WEST-TO-EAST BY THUR NIGHT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IN SOME
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. FLOODING ON CREEKS AND WASHES IS LIKELY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE GILA...SAN PEDRO
AND SANTA CRUZ AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES. BASED ON THE LATEST RIVER
FORECASTS THE GILA RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
BANKFULL OR EVEN FLOOD STAGE. FOR INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECASTS PLEASE
REFER TO THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER WED SITE AT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/06Z.
NUMEROUS -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF KTUS THRU THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE
WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY GUST TO 25 KTS INTO THURSDAY EVENING...
ALTHOUGH MOST SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTIFUL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON. THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY THE CIRCULATION
SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY STARTING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY. BY
THAT TIME...LINGERING MOISTURE AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. THIS GENERAL THEME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO JUST ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
      THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ503-507>515.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
HYDROLOGY...BOYLE




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