Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 231630
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
930 AM MST Sun Apr 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Continued dry conditions with warmer than normal
daytime temperatures and gusty afternoon winds through Wednesday. A
weather system north of the area is then expected to bring a chance
of showers mainly to the White Mountains Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies or just a few thin cirriform clouds were
across southeast Arizona at this time. Surface winds increased
shortly after daybreak, and ely/sely at 10-20 mph with gusts to near
30 mph as of 9 AM MST. These winds will diminish by early this
afternoon, but will increase shortly thereafter from the southwest
to northwest around 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph later this
afternoon. Winds will then diminish early this evening with the loss
of daytime heating.

Otherwise, the inherited official forecast is still on track with
high temperatures today to be quite similar to temperatures achieved
Saturday, or perhaps a few degrees warmer than Saturday depending
upon location. Some cirriform clouds will also move across the area
later today and into this evening, but these thin high-level clouds
will not hamper daytime heating.

Critical fire weather conditions are becoming increasing likely late
Monday morning into early Monday evening due to stronger winds and a
very dry regime. More information forthcoming in the afternoon
discussion. Please refer to the additional sections in this product
for further detail.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/18Z.
Expect SKC to SCT clouds above 20k ft AGL into Monday morning.
Surface wind thru about 19Z today ely/sely 10-18 kts with gusts to
25 kts. Surface wind this afternoon swly to nwly 10-16 kts with
gusts to 25 kts. Surface wind diminishing this evening to less than
10 kts and continuing into Monday morning. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with warmer than normal daytime
temperatures will continue through Wednesday. Gusty east to
southeast winds will diminish later this morning, then some gusty
southwest winds will occur this afternoon. Stronger southwest winds
are expected Monday.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from Monday morning through Monday
evening for fire weather zones 151 and 152. The combination of
strong and gusty southwest winds, relative humidity in the single
digits to lower teens, and a high fire danger may create critical
fire weather conditions.

Critical fire weather conditions may also occur Tuesday into Friday,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours, and particularly
east of Tucson. Field crews are strongly encouraged to monitor
subsequent forecasts for additional Fire Weather Watch and/or Red
Flag Warning issuances.

A weather system north of the area will also bring a chance of
showers mainly to the White Mountains Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /305 AM MST/...Clear to mostly clear sky prevailed
across the area this morning while a band of cirrus level clouds was
moving across southern California. Expect these clouds to move
across the area later this morning into this afternoon. Once again
the main story of the day will be the well above normal high
temperatures with readings similar or slightly warmer than Saturday.
Breezy this afternoon, especially from Tucson east and south.

The upcoming work week will be dominated by breezy to windy
conditions along with a gradual cooling trend. Fire weather concerns
each day which is addressed in the fire weather section below.

Models coming in line for late in the week stronger system that may
bring a slight chance of showers to mainly the White Mountains. Dry
conditions are forecast to return area-wide next Saturday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
   AZZ151-152.

&&

$$

Francis

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