Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 241608
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
908 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
THICKENING CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO SE AZ
BUT SHOWING SOME THINNING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE IS AT 20-30 KFT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD DEAL OF
SUN TO FILTER THROUGH.  CURRENT FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
LOOKS GOOD.  WHILE HEATING COULD BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT
MIGHT OCCUR UNDER A CLEAR SKY...MIXING FROM EAST WINDS SHOULD
MINIMIZE THAT EFFECT.

UPPER LOW CHURNING WEST OF BAJA CA WILL GATHER MOISTURE AND SPREAD
IT NORTHWARD ACROSS SONORA SUNDAY. WHILE CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN IN
PARTS OF SRN AZ...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND MAY EVEN BE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE ESE WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS COMMON THRU 25/00Z. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN FOCUSES WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BAJA
COAST LIFTS NORTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS
ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE DEVELOPING S AND W OF TUCSON AS PW VALUES INCREASE UP TO 1".

MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL BE INCREASING AREAWIDE WITH BEST CHANCES BEING
W OF TUCSON. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON QPF VALUES W OF TUCSON WITH
THIS AREA HAVING OF PW VALUES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 1".
CURRENTLY HAVE UP TO 0.20" W OF TUCSON BUT THIS MAY NOT BE HIGH
ENOUGH.

MONDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE S AS THE UPPER LOW LIFT N THRU SRN CA.

TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT PACIFIC STORM.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS NEXT PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES SRN
CA/NRN BAJA.

FRIDAY...LOOKS WET AT THIS TIME PER GFS/EC MODELS. MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UP TO CLIMO BASED POP GRIDS.

TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DROZD







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