Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 162132
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
232 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN...
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF IMPULSES IS MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE EDGING
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP INITIALIZE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME DECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THIS
IMPULSE SO COULD SEE SLIGHTLY EARLY ACTIVITY THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING. THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP OUT WEST EARLY. HRRR
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS AS DOES SREF ENSEMBLES. STILL THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE WITH THE SECOND IMPULSE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS AREA SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOISTENED BY THIS POINT.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF WANING THURSDAY MORNING AS SECOND
IMPULSE MOVES OUT AND ANOTHER SLIDES IN. THAT BEING SAID THERE
REMAINS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AREA
WIDE...THOUGH SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS WIDESPREAD. THEN AS THE
THIRD IMPULSE SLIDES THRU THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST.

FINALLY A FOURTH IMPULSE WILL SLIDE END ON THE TAIL END OF THE
THIRD THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ONE WILL LIKELY HELP CLEAR THE REGION
OUT.

IN THE EXTENDED...RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH
WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. THERE IS ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGGED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THEN ON DRY FORECAST EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/00Z.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGES
CLOSER. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS EXPECT CLOUD DECKS TO LOWER...WITH
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING IN AOA 15Z FOR KTUS/KOLS. ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EAST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A FEW PERIODS OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH EASING AND
BECOMING WESTERLY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF PASSING HIGHER
CLOUDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MEADOWS
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...77

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