National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KTWC 160323
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
822 PM MST WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS BY THROUGH THURSDAY
PROVIDING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.  ANOTHER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ARIZONA...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE ATTM. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. WARM TODAY WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 90S IN
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND A FEW SITES IN THE UPPER 90S...BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM ANY RECORDS. IT WAS ALSO A LITTLE BREEZY
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT STILL REMAIN A LITTLE ELEVATED
IN A FEW SPOTS INCLUDING THE GILA RIVER VALLEY AND AT TIA. EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST PLEASE
REFER TO THE PREV DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW. ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL UPDATE THE TEXT ZFP PRODUCT TO REMOVE
BREEZY EVENING WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY SKC THRU 16/12Z...WITH SOME CIRROFORM CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 20K FT AGL AFTER 16/12Z. SFC WIND W-NW AT 10-15 KTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY/KSAD AREA
UNTIL 16/05Z...OTHERWISE SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SFC
WIND INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 16/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE SLIGHT COOLING MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT BREEZY
AFTERNOONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS...BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A WARM AIR MASS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS PUSHED
TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S TO MID 90S DESPITE WEAK H850 COLD ADVECTION
AND LIKELY HAVE ANOTHER DEGREE OF WARMING TO GO BEFORE ITS OVER.  A
WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY.  FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES
THURSDAY JUST ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY SO SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...WHICH MEANS FLIRTING VERY CLOSE TO 100 AT TIA AGAIN.  IF
IT DOESN`HAPPEN THURSDAY THEN WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN AND PUSH
INLAND FRIDAY THEN SLIDE ACROSS AZ SATURDAY.  MODELS HAVE BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FOR OUR PART OF AZ THAT MEANS
DRY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND BREEZIER.  AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY
IT SHOULD BECOME BREEZY AREA WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 5 DEGREES COOLER
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD.  HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES REBOUND
DECENTLY SUNDAY FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND EASING WINDS.

IF WE DON`T HIT 100 AT TIA THIS AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY WE HAVE
ANOTHER SHOT AT IT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY WEAKENING AND
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND
VERY WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN.  AT THIS POINT THE WARMEST DAYS LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THICKNESSES A BIT HIGHER THAN WE
HAVE TODAY AND TOMORROW.

THEN THE MODEL WORLD IS INDICATING A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST LATER NEXT WEEK AND LINGERING FOR
QUITE SOME TIME.  ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE FAIRLY LOW WITH THIS SETUP
AND PREDICTABILITY LEVELS DECENT FOR THAT FAR OUT LENDING SOME
CONFIDENCE TO IT OCCURRING.  THIS SHOWS UP WELL IN THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTERS FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ENTIRE WEST COAST AND ABOVE NORMAL TO OUR EAST.  SHOULD MAKE FOR
SOME INTERESTING WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN US.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON