Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 160402
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
902 PM MST Thu Jun 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure aloft will bring very hot and near
record daytime temperatures into the middle of next week. The
hottest period will be Monday through Wednesday, with temperatures
likely exceeding 115 degrees especially west of Tucson. Some
thunderstorms producing gusty winds should also occur by Tuesday,
particularly east to south of Tucson.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge of high pressure will dominate our
weather into next week with temperatures climbing to near record
levels by late in the weekend. Excessive Heat Warnings remain in
effect for most of the area by Saturday and Sunday, continuing
through Wednesday.

A couple of easterly waves well south of our area along with a
strong pressure differential up the Gulf of California should
start to push some moisture in our general direction from the
south next week. The Sierra Madres will get busier, and a few
high based thunderstorms as far north as SE AZ Monday or Tuesday.
The most likely scenario is that the moisture will remain shallow
until Sonora becomes much more active with a couple of organized
thunderstorm complex days. The resulting outflows will help until
we can get a more favorable pattern established that will see
more direct influence from eastern waves and deeper surge
activity.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 17/06Z.
SKC other than a few cirrus clouds near the international border
at times. Light surface winds in the mornings, becoming WLY 8-13
kts in the afternoon/early evening hours with a few gusts to 20
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Very hot, exceptionally dry and becoming gradually
more unstable this weekend into next week. No precipitation is
expected through the weekend. Then there is potential for isolated
high based thunderstorms next Monday evening over the White
Mountains and then all of the sky islands Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. The primary threats will be dry lightning and strong
erratic outflow winds. Otherwise, 20-ft winds will be typical for
June through Sunday; light drainage overnight and westerly to
northwesterly 5-15 mph each afternoon. Thereafter, winds may be more
easterly/southeasterly. Minimum RH values will be in the low single
digits into the weekend with slight improvement later on. The
instability will increase with Haines 6 conditions slowly working
across the area from the east, starting with zones 152 & 153 Friday
and Saturday, spreading west to zone 151 Sunday and then area wide
Monday Through Thursday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 7 PM MST Wednesday
for AZZ501-502-504>506-509.

Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM MST Wednesday
for AZZ503.

Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM MST Wednesday
for AZZ507-508.

&&

$$

Meyer

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