Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250955

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
255 AM MST THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing moisture will help create better
thunderstorm coverage by Friday and Saturday.


.DISCUSSION...Clear to partly cloudy conditions prevailed across SE
AZ this morning. Precipitable water values this morning similar to
yesterday. Scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain east of
Tucson and along the international border, especially around Nogales.
Sonora should be more active this evening with some of that moisture
advecting north across the area late tonight into Friday. Upper
level trofiness to our west will keep southerly flow over the area
this weekend. Thus Friday through Sunday will be the most active
thunderstorm days in the 7 day forecast package. Highs right around
normal today then several degrees below normal Fri-Sun.

Warmer early next week, but not as warm as what was previously
forecast. Each day will see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms.


VFR conditions through the forecast period. Scattered clouds with
bases at 10-14k ft agl. Isold -TSRA/-SHRA developing after 25/19z
mainly east of KTUS. Clearing skies expected aft 26/04z. Surface
wind generally less than 12 kts, with a wly/nwly direction during
the afternoon and early evening hours. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms will occur mainly near
mountains east of Tucson today. Isolated to scattered coverage is
then expected Friday through early next week from Tucson eastward as
moisture increases from the southeast. 20-foot winds through the
upcoming weekend will be terrain driven and less than 15 mph in most
locations. Expect the potential for strong and gusty winds near any
thunderstorms that do develop.





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