Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

000
FXUS65 KTWC 231616
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL BRING AFTERNOON
BREEZES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. A SECOND PASSING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING EVEN STRONGER WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WINDS WEDNESDAY ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED BAND OF HIGH
CLOUDS FROM TUCSON EAST WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY ELSEWHERE. THIS BAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ON E TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED OVER WRN UTAH THIS
MORNING. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ENE INTO SW
WY. ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL RUN 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A LITTLE LESS WIND ON SUNDAY UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT WIND MAKER. COOLING TREND CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

MORE ON NEXT WEEKS WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/15Z.
BKN CIRRUS AOA 25K FT FROM KTUS E UNTIL 23/20Z. OTRW SKC TO SCT
CIRRUS. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LGT AND VRBL THIS MRNG...THEN BCMG W-SW
AND INCRG TO 15-22 KTS WITH GUSTS FROM 25-35 KTS BTWN 23/17Z AND
24/02Z. WINDS GRADUALLY DCRG AFTER 24/03Z AND BCMG LGT AND VRBL AFT
24/07Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE FOR EASTERN AREAS OF COCHISE COUNTY WHERE BRIEF LOCALIZED RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER DRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE
MET MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND
EAST OF TUCSON. THIS IS SOMETHING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE ASSESS THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY...BUT PICKING
BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. WE COULD
SEE WINDS AND RH VALUES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 152 (SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY).

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.