Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 162143
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
242 PM MST SAT MAY 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A STORM
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND YESTERDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL TAKE US INTO THE NEW
WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO TRACK FARHTER EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.
ARIZONA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES TOMORROW AND MONDAY COMPARED TO READINGS OBSERVED TODAY.
THEREAFTER...DRY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY DROP
A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...THEN
REBOUND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/18Z. MAINLY SCT CLOUD COVERAGE AT 6-10K FT
AGL WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCT CLOUD
COVERAGE AT OR ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH BKN
COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY WLY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDUG AND KSAD WHERE GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25
KTS IS POSSIBLE. W WIND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 17/02Z AND BECOME LIGHT
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A WARMING TREND
TO COMMENCE ON SUNDAY BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF NORMAL MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH BORDERLINE RED FLAG WIND
THRESHOLDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD
SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WITH THAT
SAID...GIVEN THE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS AND MARGINAL FIRE
DANGER...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THEREAFTER...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL RED FLAG
THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE


&&

$$

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