Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 310327
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
826 PM MST SAT JAN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AGAIN SUNDAY. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING VALLEY
RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VERY STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND A HARD FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN PREVAIL
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION... IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT...SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM OF
INTEREST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH IN. CURRENTLY UPPER AIR PLOTS AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE PACIFIC SYSTEM/TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STRENGTH...POSITION AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM ENTERING
SE ARIZONA...SO NO CHANGES PLANED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...THOUGH LIKELY A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. SOUTHWEST WINDS HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...BECOMING
FAIRLY STRONG TO GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. TIMING FOR
PRECIP ENTERING THE AREA ALSO SEEMS ON TRACK...WITH AREAS TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH SEEING THE START OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE
EVENING...SPREADING QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST THEREAFTER.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
ADVISORY/WARNING DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/06Z.
SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WIND THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WLY/SWLY AT
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL OCCUR
EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS...INCLUDING THE KDUG/KOLS/KALK/KFHU
TERMINALS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN
10 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG WARMING TREND DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOULD THEN OCCUR LATE SUN
NIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN
ARIZONA. VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST-TO-EAST
MON AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MON
NIGHT MOSTLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TUE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE TUE NIGHT
UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
TO 5 PM MST MONDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE CATALINA/RINCON/
GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO AWIPS
PRODUCT PHXWSWTWC /WMO HEADER WWUS45 KTWC/ FOR DETAIL.

A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. THUS...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM
SUNDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR MOST MOUNTAINS FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM
SUNDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM TUCSON EWD
TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ARE ALSO INCLUDED IN
THIS WIND ADVISORY.

GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS...BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY INTO MON FROM THE CATALINA
MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A CONSIDERATION TOWARD A
BLIZZARD WARNING ISSUANCE FOR AZZ510-511-514 WILL OCCUR WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. A CONSIDERATION TOWARD UPGRADING THE WIND
ADVISORY TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LOCALES SUCH AS SIERRA VISTA WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR LOCALES BELOW 5000 FEET EAST OF
TUCSON. FINALLY...A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR MUCH OF PIMA COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTY MAY BE NECESSARY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AREA-WIDE WED-SAT UNDER WLY/NWLY
FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT OCCASIONALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS THUR-SAT.

HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL OR A FEW DEGS COOLER VERSUS
TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS MON WILL THEN BE ABOUT
15-25 DEGS COLDER VERSUS SUN DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. EXPECT A FEW
DEGS OF ADDITIONAL COOLING TUE...WHEN HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEARLY
15-20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. A FEW DEGS OF WARMING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
WED FOLLOWED BY MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS THUR-SAT.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 5 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR AZZ510 ABOVE 5000 FEET.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 5 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR AZZ511-514 ABOVE 5000 FEET.

   HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR
     AZZ511>514.

   WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM MST MONDAY FOR AZZ503-
     AZZ504-506>510-515.

&&

$$

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