Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 212152
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY EAST OF
TUCSON TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER N-NW FLOW ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...BUT IN A
THINNING FASHION...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A MIX OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT...EVEN WITH THE
VARIED AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
THIS MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF UPPER HIGH WELL TO
OUR WEST WILL PUSH THRU THE 4 CORNERS REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. A NORTH BREEZE WILL KICK UP AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MIGHT SEE A BRIEF FLURRY OR TWO IN THE
WHITES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.

UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY WITH COOLER AIR
SETTLING IN THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS GOING MUCH STRONGER WITH THE
WINDS IN THE EASTERN ZONES VERSUS WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING AND WHAT
SOME OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. SOMETHING TO WATCH. HIGHS EAST
OF TUCSON ON TUESDAY WILL 3-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS WITH MODELS AT ODDS OF DEPTH OF
THESE SYSTEM. THE WHITES COULD SEE A FLURRY OR TWO FROM THESE
SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS
GENERALLY ABOVE 20K FT...CLEARING BY MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL BE
DIURNAL AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 22/18Z. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THEREAFTER...STRONGER WINDS SOUTH AND
EAST OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE GILA VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL
SETTLE DURING THE EVENING EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE
GILA VALLEY WHERE THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BRING BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS...BUT MORE
NORTHERLY...THEN A LIGHTER EAST BREEZE WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH LATE
MONDAY RESULTING IN LOWERING HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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