Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 171003
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SOME
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY WITH FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG MOISTURE PUSH FROM ODILE NOW WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LAST NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE 1.85 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE AND ATMOSPHERE CONVERTING TO A
MORE TROPICAL PROFILE. ODILE IS STILL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
MAINTAINING 50MPH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS AND AS OF 2AM WAS ABOUT 85
MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO PENASCO MOVING NNE AT 6MPH. LATEST TRACK HAS
HER MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN ABOUT 35 TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO
PENASCO LATER THIS MORNING. BY THE TIME SHE REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY SHE SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND PROBABLY WEAKENED TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH. A POSITION 30 TO 50 MILES WEST OF TUCSON IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN.

THERE WERE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVERNIGHT INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN
NEAR THE VAMORI WASH AND FRESNAL CANYON AREAS SOUTH OF SELLS AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY...BUT INTENSITY IS DOWN SOMEWHAT AT
THIS HOUR AS WE CYCLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECT A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING THEN ANOTHER MARKED AND MORE
WIDESPREAD INTENSITY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...PROBABLY AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE NEAR TO EAST OF THE PATH OF ODILE WHICH PUTS AREAS FROM
SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS
HAVE QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL RAPIDLY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM NEAR TUCSON
EASTWARD.

PLENTY OF RESIDUAL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RECIRCULATE OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR A SOLID SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ECMWF HAS A
SECONDARY HIGH LATITUDE LOW FURTHER SHARPEN POSSIBLE STORMS AS
WELL...SO WE PROBABLY WON`T SHUT DOWN AFTER ODILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. FLOODING ON CREEKS AND WASHES IS
LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM RIVERS OF CONCERN ARE THE
GILA...SAN PEDRO...SANTA CRUZ...THE RILLITO...AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES.
SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS/WASHES OF CONCERN INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO: SABINO...ALAMO... PANTANO...BRAWLEY...AND THE NOGALES
WASH. FOR INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECASTS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER WED SITE AT WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/10Z
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS THE REMAINS OF ODILE PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXPECT
LOWERING CEILINGS TODAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY MID MORNING
INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 12 TO 20KTS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT
FLOODING ISSUES DEVELOPING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
   AZZ501>504-507-508-512>515.

  FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
   AZZ505-506-509>511.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN/CARLAW




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