Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 040935
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 AM MST FRI JUL 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. SOME STORMS WILL GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BUSY THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH ORGANIZED OUTFLOWS AND DUST
ISSUES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOTS OF DEBRIS LEFT
OVER. WE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR OUT AND SOLAR INSOLATION WILL BE
INITIALLY LACKING FROM TUCSON WESTWARD TODAY. IN ADDITION...MORNING
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO SLOW ANY CONVECTIVE TRENDS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD
CONSIDERABLY TODAY. WITH CLEARING IN THE EAST FIRST WE WILL SEE THE
BEST HEATING EAST AND SOUTH FIRST...THEN RELY ON OUTFLOWS TO SPREAD
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE TUCSON AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING (AFTER THE INITIAL MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY). DAYTIME HIGHS
KNOCKED BACK AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS THERE. BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES SHOWING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH
1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES A BIT MORE.

HIGH CONSOLIDATED NORTH OF OUR AREA NOW WITH INVERTED IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND TO ENHANCE OUR CONVECTION INTO EARLY WEEKEND. BY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS FEATURE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTING WITH IT. WE WILL
PROBABLY STILL BE ON THE BUSY SIDE SATURDAY...BUT DOWN A LITTLE
SUNDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE IMPULSE AND
A FAIRLY WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE POSITION DEEPER INTO
THE GREAT BASIN NORTHWEST OF US...BUT ECMWF FEATURING ANOTHER
IMPULSE TO FOCUS CONVECTION FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY TUESDAY. WE
WILL RAMP THINGS UP ACCORDINGLY AFTER A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. DEFAULT IS A BLEND OF NAMDNG5 AND ECMWF...WITH CAREFUL
CONSIDERATION FOR HRRR AND VARIOUS WRF ITERATIONS. WELCOME TO THE
MONSOON!

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS...WITH DECKS AROUND 8-14KFT
AGL...THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUN TO WORK ON MOIST ATMOSPHERE. SO STILL
LOOKING AT SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS NEAR +TSRA. OTHERWISE
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
DELAY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL
LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/GLUECK





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