Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 160324
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
824 PM MST SAT OCT 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A rather static weather pattern across the Southwest
will maintain the mostly clear and mild weather conditions into the
new week. A weak frontal boundary sagging into our corner of the
state from New Mexico may bring gusty east winds and a couple of
degrees of cooling Thursday and Friday.
.DISCUSSION...As a strong storm continues to batter the Pacific
Northwest, we`ll see a dry westerly flow continue to dominate our
weather with above average afternoon high temperatures and near
normal overnight lows. No updates this evening. Please see the
previous discussion below for details.
.AVIATION...Valid through 17/06Z.
Mostly clear with normal diurnal wind trends generally less than
12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and low humidity levels will
prevail into the middle of the week under high pressure aloft.
Light drainage winds are expected during the overnight hours and
20- foot winds will be less than 15 mph with occasional higher
gusts during the afternoon and early evening hours through the
middle of next week. A backdoor front will then result in stronger
easterly winds during the latter half of next week.
.PREV DISCUSSION...Early afternoon water vapor imagery reveals
broad southwesterly flow across the region. Under clear skies,
temperatures were already in the lower 90s across the lower
deserts as of 21Z. Well on their way into the mid 90s before the
end of the day and the near term portion of the forecast looks
right on track.
Not much day to day synoptic variation across the region as weak
ridging/zonal flow is forecast through at least the middle of next
week. By the time we get late in the week upper ridging strengthens
overhead with H5 heights approaching 588dm which is similar to what
has been observed recently. As such, see no reason why we won`t see
a continued period of above normal temps in the upper 80s/lower 90s
right through next weekend. There remains the possibility of a back
door front sliding into eastern Arizona which could knock
temperatures back a few degrees, although it looks unlikely that the
cooler temps would make it all the way into Tucson and points west.
Slight upward adjustments were made to temps at the tail end of the
forecast period but overall the forecast is largely unchanged. No
PoPs anywhere at any point in the forecast.
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