Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 262040
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
140 PM MST FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP
TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT WE ARE SEEING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY INTO THE GILA MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE STORMS PUSH TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND ABOUT 1.3 INCHES OF PWAT. RESIDUAL VALLEY CIN WILL LIKELY
BE OVERCOME DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. AS MENTIONED IN THE
MORNING DISCUSSION...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS A BIT IN THE TUCSON
AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE STORMS
WILL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST. REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT THE
BLOWING DUST THREAT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TUCSON DUE TO OUTFLOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH THE UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SUSTAINED
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS IS A FAVORABLE MONSOON
PATTERN FOR US...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE JUNE. FOR SATURDAY...SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY TRY TO PUSH FARTHER WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
DESERTS AND LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL GREATER DUST THREAT THAN TODAY.
WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NORTH AND WEST OF
TUCSON INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY EVENING.

WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY WELL DEFINED DISTURBANCES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TO REALLY HANG OUR HAT ONTO. THUS...EXPECT WEAK SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES THAT THE MODELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PICKING UP
ON TO LARGELY DRIVE OUR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND DETERMINE WHICH DAYS
ARE MORE ACTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLD-SCTD TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY E AND S OF KTUS THRU 27/06Z WITH
SCT-BKN080 BKN-SCT120.  BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SURFACE
WIND BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.  TSRA/SHRA DIMINISHING AFT 27/06Z AND
BECOMING SCT080 SCT-BKN120.  CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AFTER 27/18Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK.  INITIAL THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND DRY LIGHTNING UNTIL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
ENTRENCHED THIS WEEKEND.  WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY
COMMON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING STORMS TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.  OTHERWISE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE LIGHT.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

GL

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