Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

000
FXUS65 KTWC 150917
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A DRY AND MILD DAY TODAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF TUCSON SUNDAY WITH
A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SOME
BELOW FREEZING READINGS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.  CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FEATURE THAT BROUGHT THE BEAUTIFUL SUNSET LAST
EVENING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND ONLY A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS FOR TODAY.  TO GO ALONG WITH THE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WILL BE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE AND IS PREPARING TO QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE AXIS OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE FOUR-CORNERS AREA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW THEN PUSH
INTO TEXAS BY SUNDAY EVENING.  AS IT PASSES BY THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE OF SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES AND EASTERN PINAL COUNTY DURING THE DAY.  A NORTHWEST
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING DOWN THE GILA VALLEY AND FAR EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE
20-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH.

DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING
ACROSS THE REGION.  BY MONDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH A FEW BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF TUCSON.  GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS THAT
DIPPED BELOW FREEZING ON THE 4TH.  AFTER A COLDER THAN NORMAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP A FEW DEGREES FURTHER
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  PRETTY GOOD
CHANCE OF BELOW FREEZING MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
COCHISE...GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES.  A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY COLDEST LOCATIONS OUT EAST COULD SEE MID 20S.  STAY
TUNED.

BEYOND THAT...GENERALLY HAVE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH
PASSING SHORT WAVE RIDGES AND WEAK TROUGHS.  FOR OUR AREA THAT
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
PASSING CLOUDS AT TIMES.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WEDNESDAY ONWARD.  CERNIGLIA

&&

AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/06Z.
FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS LINGERS MAINLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS MORNING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AT 15-25K FT AGL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...FEW-SCT
LOWER CLOUDS AT 5-7K FT AGL WILL REDEVELOP TODAY. SURFACE WINDS
MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND 10 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FROM TUCSON WESTWARD...BUT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
20 KNOTS FROM TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REST OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS OF
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AND GUSTY AT TIMES. AFTER SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.