Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 222100
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST SUN MAR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FOR DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 22/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
RIDGING OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SATURDAY. VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...UTAH AND
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF ARIZONA. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
FILTER INTO ARIZONA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WHICH IS OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...ZONAL FLOW AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME FLAVOR OF A TROUGH WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MODELS ARE VERY
LIMITED WITH MOISTURE...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...ALBEIT ONLY ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

ONCE THE TROUGH SLIPS TO THE SOUTH...RIDGING NORTH OF THE TROUGH
WILL SETTLE OVER ARIZONA FOR NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR TUCSON...HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...THEN 7
TO 9 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN 10 TO 12
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS GENERALLY 6 TO 8 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 25KT FEET. WINDS MAY REACH 15 KTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE GILA VALLEY IN AND AROUND KSAD.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE HIGHS TOPPING OUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 15 MPH...ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
GILA RIVER VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CANTIN





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