Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 160323
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
822 PM MST WED OCT 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL THEN BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES
NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/06Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND TERRAIN DRIVEN
AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 16/18Z. SURFACE WIND BETWEEN
16/18Z AND 16/23Z...WLY/NWLY AT 10-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS WEEKEND RESULTING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WITH
ARIZONA ON THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THESE SYSTEMS. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND DEEPEN OVER THE WRN CONUS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED THIS AFTERNOON WELL WEST OF SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE AREA AS AN OPEN WAVE SYSTEM FRI. SOME
VIRGA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE OPTED FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING EAST OF
TUCSON. HAVE TRIMMED THE INHERITED POPS TO SINGLE DIGITS AREA-WIDE
SAT.

15/12Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE 15/00Z ECMWF WITH DEPICTING A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN.
MOISTURE IS THEN PROGGED TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON SUN-MON. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS WRN
SECTIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD TUE-WED AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY NWLY. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AS PER THE 15/12Z GFS/CANADIAN AND 15/00Z ECMWF TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TUE-WED.

A FEW DEGS OF DAILY COOLING WILL OCCUR THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY VERY
MINOR DAILY TEMP THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PREV DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL







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