Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 150248

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
848 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Another round of thunderstorms has developed in Carter County
thanks to a highly sheared environment and stubborn low level
convergence being aided by 500 MB jet streak aloft. The storm
earlier in this area was a monster as it crossed into South
Dakota, and worked over the atmosphere pretty good. But due to
strong directional shear in SE Montana there is still a chance
sustained updrafts could produce some hail and strong
microbursts. We adjusted PoPs based on a blend of short term progs
and current radar. Ongoing showers across the south looks like a
good bet into Tuesday. BT


.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

A strong shortwave was driving across central Montana at the
moment. A line of showers with isolated thundestorms were moving
through the eastern part of the forecast area, ahead and to the
south of this wave. Best chance of thundestorms will be over the
far southeast corner this evening, but clouds have dramatically
hindered instability, so will not mention in the zones. PoPs will
taper off from west to east through the night.

Channeled vorticity will slowly cross the area tonight and
Tuesday. Energy flowing through the area is weak, and therefore,
will keep PoPs low Tuesday as the atmosphere progged to gradually
dry out. Shortwave energy was very weak and mainly confined to the
west and north of the area, so kept the forecast dry for
Wednesday. Gradually warmer temperatures expected the next two
days, with a return to sunshine and zonal flow. TWH

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Models continue to show a rather quiet pattern for the second half
of the week. Zonal to northwesterly flow will dominate the
weather. Generally the area will be dry through the weekend,
though there is a slight chance Thursday into Friday as a trough
tracks north and east of the area. Some energy maybe able to
develop a few showers and thunderstorms from Billings east, but
it is only a slight chance. Temperatures will still be around
normal, but gradually warming to near 90 degrees by the end of the
weekend. Reimer


Scattered showers and isolated thundestorms continue to develop in
southeast Montana this evening. A few showers also remain over
southwestern mountains and foothills. Local MVFR conditions are
possible with the heavier precip, and mountains will be obscured.
Clouds and precipitation will decrease from west to east
overnight. AAG



    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
BIL 057/079 055/085 057/086 057/088 059/090 059/085 057/086
    22/T    10/U    11/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 049/077 046/084 049/084 047/088 050/087 048/085 049/085
    23/T    20/B    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 056/079 052/087 056/089 055/090 057/092 057/087 056/088
    22/T    11/U    11/U    00/U    01/U    10/U    11/U
MLS 057/081 055/086 060/090 057/089 060/094 062/088 058/088
    12/T    10/U    11/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
4BQ 058/077 052/085 056/089 054/088 057/093 059/088 057/089
    33/T    11/U    12/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/T
BHK 057/077 052/082 056/088 054/086 056/090 057/085 055/084
    43/T    21/U    12/T    10/U    00/U    01/B    12/T
SHR 054/073 048/083 052/085 050/086 052/089 053/086 053/086
    35/T    22/T    12/T    10/U    00/U    01/U    11/U




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