Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 281604
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1004 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDY FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE KEEPING MOST AREAS
DRY THIS MORNING. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
BULL MOUNTAINS BUT OBSERVATIONS AT MILES CITY AND BAKER HAVE
REMAINED DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
WINDS ALREADY GUSTING OVER 50 MPH OVER NORTHEAST ZONES. AS WE HEAT
UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
MIX DOWN AND SHOULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60 MPH RANGE IN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING AREAS...WITH GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AS
STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE SEPTEMBER THAN LATE JULY. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

A MUCH CALMER DAY IS STORE TODAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING THE LARGE AND
DEEP UPPER LOW AND THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THE UPPER WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE IT
SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING.

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE VERY TIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES WILL OCCUR AS WELL AND THIS
COMBINED WITH 850MB WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KTS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS AROUND 35KTS FOR MILES CITY AND BAKER. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR HIGH WINDS TODAY OUT EAST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO GUST
INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS
EVENING...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL SLACKEN AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY SUNSET. SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE.

A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH RISING HEIGHTS WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

SUMMERTIME RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES 5
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THIS PERIOD HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY
LOWER AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SLIDE TO NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S.
WEAK SIGNAL THAT MONSOONAL FLOW BUILDS ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. BORSUM


&&

.AVIATION...

AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER KBIL AND KMLS. CURRENTLY
SUSTAINED AT 32KTS WITH 40KT GUSTS AT KMLS WHILE KBIL IS
SUSTAINED AT 23 WITH 32 KT GUSTS. THE WINDS OVER KBIL AND KMLS
WILL CONTINUE TO ELEVATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PEAKING OUT AROUND
16-20Z. PEAK WINDS AT KMLS WILL BE 35-40KTS WITH 50KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WHILE KBIL SHOULD SEE 25KT WINDS WITH 35-40KT GUSTS.
OTHER TERMINALS WILL HAVE ELEVATED WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BUT NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDES EXPECTED AT KBIL AND KMLS.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR WITH THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION TO KMLS...AND
MAYBE KBIL...WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. DOBBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 052/085 057/091 058/094 061/092 061/089 060/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 073 044/083 049/088 053/091 054/090 054/088 054/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/T    12/B
HDN 076 051/087 054/092 056/096 058/093 059/091 059/089
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B    11/B
MLS 073 053/086 057/091 059/096 062/092 061/090 061/089
    2/T 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/B
4BQ 073 052/086 055/092 058/096 061/093 061/092 060/090
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    11/B
BHK 070 050/084 053/088 056/092 060/089 058/087 058/085
    3/T 10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    22/B
SHR 074 046/083 049/089 054/093 055/092 056/090 056/087
    1/N 00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/T    22/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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