Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 200829
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
229 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND MONSOON MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH IT
HAS BEEN A DRY NIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY BUT WITHOUT AS MUCH WIND TO
MIX INTO AS YESTERDAY. THAT BEING SAID...WILL STILL SEE GUSTS IN
THE 20S ALONG OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE 90S WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SW AS
FLOW ALOFT BACKS LATE TODAY...AND THIS COULD YIELD A FEW SHOWERS
OR WEAK TSTMS OVER OUR SW MTNS BY LATE AFTN OR MORE LIKELY THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS OVER OUR SW MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THRU
THE NIGHT AS MONSOON MOISTURE DEEPENS. WE WILL ALSO SEE A WEAK
COLD FRONT BACK INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT BEHIND SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE IN CANADA...THUS EXPECT NE WINDS TO SAG INTO OUR CWA.

INCREASED TSTM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THRU THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND INTERACTS WITH
A MOISTENING AIRMASS...A COMBINATION OF MONSOONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
LOW LEVEL ADVECTION FROM THE EAST. PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND AN INCH SO HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS. MID
LEVEL TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 10C OR COOLER SO ANY MID
LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD BE ELIMINATED. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
GREAT ENOUGH FOR A FEW NEAR-SEVERE STORMS IN OUR FAR EAST...BUT
SEVERE PARAMETERS LOOK MORE PROMISING EAST OF OUR CWA PER LATEST
MODELS/SREF. WITH CONFIDENCE HAVE RAISED POPS A LITTLE MORE TO GO
HIGHER SCATTERED MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
EAST FLOW MAY YIELD A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION FOR OUR EAST
THRU MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVE TIMING...BUT MODELS IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT HERE. WE WILL SEE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN BY
06-12Z LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

LIGHTNING ON MONDAY WILL OF COURSE WILL BE A PROBLEM GIVEN THE
CURRENT STATE OF OUR DRYING FINE FUELS...BUT THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM BEING WET. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ON MONDAY IN THE FWF.

TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL TAKE A STEP DOWN DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND SHOWER CHANCES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...OR
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BRING
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. A FEW
DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OUT OVER THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL BREAK DOWN LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND
INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. GOOD MIXING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS. RH`S ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY IS POSSIBLE. CANNOT RULE OUT FRIDAY ALSO AS A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH`S WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS VERY
DRY AIR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN
THE 80S. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL HAVE
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RICHMOND

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FLIGHT TERMINALS TODAY. THE
ONLY FLIGHT HAZARDS WILL BE SMOKE IN THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING
OCCASIONAL REDUCED VISIBILITY OF AROUND 5 MILES. THE SMOKE WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. RICHMOND

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 063/089 061/091 062/093 062/089 057/085 059/083
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
LVM 094 055/084 055/089 054/090 053/086 051/083 052/081
    0/N 14/T    42/T    22/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
HDN 097 060/090 059/093 062/095 060/091 057/086 059/084
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 096 064/091 063/091 064/094 063/090 059/086 062/083
    0/U 13/T    51/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 095 063/092 061/091 062/095 062/090 058/085 061/083
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 093 060/090 059/087 060/088 058/088 057/083 060/080
    0/U 13/T    51/B    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/N
SHR 093 058/090 055/090 058/093 057/090 054/084 058/082
    0/U 13/T    31/U    12/T    21/U    11/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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