Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 260918
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
318 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST...AS WE SIT ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST LEADING TO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND WE ARE QUITE CONFIDENT IN THE TEMPERATURE/ZERO POP
FORECASTS.

THE COMBINATION OF CURED FUELS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER IS GREATEST OVER
ROSEBUD AND CUSTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THIS WILL BE ALSO SEE BRISK WINDS...BUT GREENNESS AND OBSERVED
FIRE DANGER CLASS MAPS SUGGEST CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT YET
LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. SO THE BOTTOM LINE...WE WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG WARNING GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN ROSEBUD/TREASURE
AND CUSTER COUNTIES...AND NOT EXPAND IT EASTWARD. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES IN MODELS FROM
PREVIOUS RUN...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO START THE
PERIOD...AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE A
BIT BY TUESDAY...AND SPREAD SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PRECIP POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEGINNING THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP
SUPPRESS ANY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS. MONSOONAL FLOW DOES
CONTINUE INTO THE REGION HOWEVER...KEEPING MOUNTAIN SHOWER/THUNDER
POTENTIAL INTACT FOR TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONGER WAVE APPEARS
TO BEGIN PUSH INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE SPREAD
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...WEAK EASTERLY SFC FLOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN
THE WORKWEEK AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER. DID LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT KEPT 90S IN PLACE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOREMOST IN OUR MINDS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL NOT
IMPROVE THE FUELS CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK IT WILL
BRING ANY EXTREMES WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO OR BELOW 20 PERCENT MOST DAYS BUT WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE BELOW 20 MPH.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN ROUTES. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 056/087 059/087 059/088 059/087 060/091 062/090
    0/U 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    21/U    22/T
LVM 084 046/087 051/087 051/088 051/086 054/091 055/090
    0/U 00/U    01/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 086 054/087 056/089 056/090 057/088 059/093 061/092
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    21/U    22/T
MLS 083 056/084 059/086 058/088 059/087 061/091 064/092
    0/N 00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
4BQ 083 054/083 056/086 057/087 057/086 059/090 060/091
    0/N 00/U    00/U    11/B    22/T    21/U    11/U
BHK 079 051/080 053/082 053/084 054/083 056/087 059/088
    0/N 00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 083 050/086 053/086 053/086 052/084 055/088 057/088
    0/U 00/U    01/B    22/T    22/T    21/B    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 30>32.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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