Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 131607
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1007 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP ALL WINTER STORM HIGHLITES. UPPER LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT IS NOW OVER
KANSAS WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION COVERING MUCH OF WYOMING.
UPSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER DRY AIR IS QUICKLY PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SATELLITE IS SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
AREA AND THIS TIME OF YEAR IT IS VERY HARD TO ACCUMULATE MUCH SNOW
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE CANCELLED THE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND EXPECT AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IN THE FOOTHILLS...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE INCHES MORE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. ROADS WERE SLICK AND ICY EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT
WEB CAMS ACROSS THE AREA AND DOT REPORTS INDICATE IMPROVEMENT
RECENTLY...AND SHOULD SEE QUICK IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS
THE SUN ANGLE INCREASES MAKING SNOWPACKED ROADS WET. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING IN MOST AREAS...BUT DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL STAY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. A LACK OF
CLOUDS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL LEAD TO
A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. CHAMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

SPRING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
SHOWING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING AS A RESULT AN OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW...ALTHOUGH NOT GREATLY ORGANIZED...POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
IDAHO. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A BIG TIMBER TO BILLINGS TO SHERIDAN LINE. HEAVIEST RADAR
RETURNS ARE OVER THE FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY. IR SATELLITE HAS BEEN SHOWING WARMING
CLOUD TOPS OVER THE AREA SIGNALING A SLOW DECREASE IN THE
ACTIVITY. RADAR IS SHOWING THIS TREND AS WELL AS THE OVERALL AREAL
COVERAGE OF SNOW HAS BEEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT.

WEB CAMS AND SPOTTER REPORTS FROM LATE LAST EVENING CONFIRM
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM SHERIDAN/BIG HORN COUNTIES WEST TO
SWEET GRASS COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH NOON BUT THESE MAY
BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE AFTER 6 AM. HOWEVER...SNOW ENDED IN THE LIVINGSTON
AREA SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT AREA WILL GO AHEAD AND
CANCEL THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SO ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER.
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE CURRENT SNOW
BELIEVE AREAS OF FOG WILL BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS THAT HAVE A SNOW COVER MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A BIG TIMBER-BILLINGS-LODGE GRASS LINE. HIGHS TODAY WILL NOT MAKE
IT OUT OF THE 30S TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS AND
20S...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITH A SNOW COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY BACK OVER THE STATE
BY MONDAY RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO REBOUND AROUND 3-5C RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER..A CLIPPER TYPE WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK
REINFORCING SHOTS OF ENERGY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...SOME NICE WEATHER TUESDAY WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 30S COMMON
ON WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL IS A GOOD BET AGAIN ON NORTH FACING SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OVERALL THE ENERGY IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG
OR AS ORGANIZED AS THIS WEEKENDS. MODELS THEN INDICATE WEAK
RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK LEADING TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR A WEAK
PACIFIC FRONT AROUND FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BT
&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 19Z OVER WESTERN
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ROUTES...WITH ACCOMPANYING AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
IMPACTING KSHR AND KLVM. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO LINGER OVER FAR
EASTERN ROUTES THROUGH 18Z...IMPACTING KBHK. AFTER 19Z...VFR WILL
BECOME PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...THOUGH THERE MAY STILL
BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE BEARTOOTHS
AND BIG HORNS. N TO NE SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL
BE COMMON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 023/052 034/059 031/043 027/053 034/062 037/064
    2/S 10/B    03/W    44/W    21/B    02/W    20/B
LVM 037 019/051 033/057 031/045 026/053 033/058 033/062
    3/S 10/U    04/W    44/W    21/B    13/W    20/B
HDN 038 024/052 031/062 031/044 025/054 031/065 034/065
    3/S 10/B    03/W    44/W    21/B    02/W    20/B
MLS 039 022/050 031/061 029/041 023/052 028/061 034/063
    1/B 00/B    02/W    44/W    11/B    12/W    20/N
4BQ 036 022/048 029/063 030/043 023/050 028/064 033/063
    1/B 10/B    02/W    44/W    21/B    12/W    20/B
BHK 035 019/043 025/058 025/036 019/045 023/056 031/060
    1/B 00/U    01/B    44/J    11/B    11/B    30/B
SHR 031 015/047 028/061 031/044 024/052 029/062 032/063
    +/S 20/U    02/W    44/W    31/B    01/B    10/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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