Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 191745 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1145 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NM/WEST
TX TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDING DATA INDICATED A
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE DRY FLOW AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
SUNNY SKIES TODAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...SO HAVE NUDGED THEM UP
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MEANS THE
STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME 70S
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY ALONG WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. BY
TUESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS A TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE TROUGH SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...SHOWING A POORLY DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS WITH ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT BEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT RAIN SINCE 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 0C TO 4C DEGREES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS PRESENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. DID NOT PAY MUCH ATTENTION
TO MOS GUIDANCE SINCE MOS VALUES GENERALLY SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY.

ALL MODELS SHOW THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
STRENGTHENS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY LATE THIS WEEK
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WEATHER-WISE THAT WE WILL SEE ACROSS OUR
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE WIND
DIRECTION AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST
OF OUR REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, AND THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY GO FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
LATE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE
HRRR, GFS AND NAM20) KEEP THE MOISTURE RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK. IT WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS BUT
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY BUT WETTING RAINS
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...GARMON
FIRE WEATHER...SML






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