Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 191738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1138 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Today...Winds will be stronger today as low and mid level gradients
strengthen over yesterday. Continued quite warm with the warm air
mass and downslope westerly winds aiding temperatures. No showers
expected with lack of low and mid level moisture.

Tonight...Another relatively mild night for this time of March with
a warm airmass in place and some cloud cover. Still looks too dry
in the low and mid levels for any precipitation.

Monday...Cooler temperatures in the wake of a backdoor cold front
that will move slowly westward across the plains east of the
mountains. Coolest temperatures in the cooler air from Lusk to
Chadron, though temperatures will still be well above normal. Likely
incoming shortwave trough aloft will help generate isolated to
scattered showers west of a Laramie to Lusk line.

Monday night...Scattered showers expected as a shortwave trough aloft
moves overhead over adequate low and mid level moisture. Not as
mild as Sunday night, though still somewhat mild for this time of
the year.

Tuesday...Although shortwave ridging aloft develops overhead, the
cooler airmass moves westward to the lee of the Laramie Range with
strong surface high pressure to our northeast covering the entire
central and northern plains states. Low level mechanical lift and
surface convergence along the stationary front will help generate
isolated to scattered showers along and west of a Douglas to
Cheyenne line. Most locations will be cooler than Monday affected by
the airmass in the wake of the cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

The mid-to-late week period is shaping up to be unsettled as a
potent upper trough advances east from the Great Basin across the
central/southern Rockies and plains. Increasing southwest flow
aloft will advect abundant Pacific mid/upper moisture into the CWA
Wednesday. Widespread low elevation rain showers and high elevation
snow showers are forecast from Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Total QPF during this time period will average between 0.10 and 0.25
inch. with up to 4 inches of snowfall possible over the higher peaks.
It will be breezy to windy Wednesday with a tight pre-frontal pressure
gradient. Temperatures Wednesday will be quite mild with 50s and 60s
lower elevations and 40s mountains. Blustery and cooler conditions
are forecast Thursday following the fropa. Drier and more stable air
mass infiltrates the CWA Friday with the passage of a short wave
upper ridge. Saturday will be breezy and warmer in advance of the
next Pacific upper trough. Increasing moisture and rain/snow showers
will spread east toward the Laramie Range Saturday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions with gusty southwest winds through the afternoon
hours. Winds expected to ease after sunset and then pick up again


Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Critical fire weather conditions will occur from late this morning
into early this evening for far southeast Wyoming and the western
Nebraska Panhandle due to low humidities and gusty winds above 25
mph. Lessening concerns the next few days as afternoon humidities
will be higher.


WY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ310.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ311>313.



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