Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 220014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
614 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Main weather concerns over the next 24 hours looks to be in the
fire weather department with increasing winds tomorrow along and
east of the Laramie Range with very low late morning and afternoon
relative humidity values. Local procedures and higher resolution
models showing a moderate tightening of the pressure gradient
from Craig to Casper tomorrow morning into the afternoon and with
decent westerly downslope warming and drying low RH seems a good
bet to go with the breeze for tomorrow. Otherwise...the short term
forecast remains dry through Saturday as we remain under the
influence of a large 4 corner high pressure system that is keeping
moisture and upper disturbances well to our north.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

The quite mild conditions look like they will continue through
next week with no real sign of any significant cold air coming
this way for quite some time to come. Things start out with an
upper ridge ovr the region on Sunday...moving east of the area
Sunday night and Monday. This will keep things dry into Monday.
An upper shortwave will approach the CWA late Monday...passing
across Monday night into Tuesday.  This should bring scattered
showers to the CWA at that time.  Any snowfall looks light and
confined to the higher mtns later Monday night. After that upr
ridging rebuilds over the Rocky mtns returning dry conditions.
GFS depicts a shortwave passing by to the north late Thursday
dragging a cool front across the CWA then but it does not look
significant. EC keeps the ridge in place.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 613 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty winds to
return to much of the area tomorrow, especially across the Wyoming


Issued at 232 PM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Red Flag Warning conditions continuing to become more marginal
over Fire Weather Zone 310 which is east of the south Laramie
Range in SE Wyoming but continues to be near or at Red Flag
criteria for zone 309 (South Laramie Range). Vedauwoo still
gusting to 32 mph with RH around 13 percent...and Bordeaux gusting
to 25 with 15 percent RH. Evening shift may be able to drop the
Red Flag for 310 here in the next obs pass or two. For
tomorrow...expect higher levels of wind than what we saw today and
farther east...with low RH values 10 to 15 percent along and east
of the entire Laramie Range east into the Nebraska Panhandle.
Continued the Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow for those areas and
added zone 302 in Wyoming (north Laramie Range) as it is still
indicated by fire agencies to be yes on critical fuels.
Otherwise..expect cooler conditions on Sunday with less of a low
humidity concern.


WY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for WYZ301-302-309-310.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NEZ311>313.



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