Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 222146
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
246 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH WINDS AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW BEING THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...PRETTY TRANQUIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEING SEEN ON AREA METARS. WINDS JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS
AT SIDNEY AND CHADRON. STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS OF POSSIBLE
MIXING...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING OUT IN THE PANHANDLE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A COLD FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AS FORECAST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ENERGY COMING
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...850/700MB WINDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. 850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWFA IN CAMPBELL AND WESTON COUNTIES WITH 700MB WINDS
INCREASING TO OVER 65KTS. LOOKING AT NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WINDS
ARE QUITE STRONG AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER...ON THE ORDER OF
60-65KTS. ENERGY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING WITH A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE PINE RIDGE IN DAWES AND SIOUX COUNTY.
COMBINATION OF 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO
40-45MPH LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A SHORT
FUSED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. EVENING
SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS WEST INTO NIOBRARA COUNTY BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS/REPORTS. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z
TIMEFRAME.

WINDS EASE TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. AREA DRIES
OUT COMPLETELY BY 18Z. SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP ALL HEADLINES BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGIONAL WEATHER WILL MAKE ITS
APPROACH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SOME SNOW PROBABLY SPREADING INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFS JUST A BIT
FASTER THAN THE LATEST EC BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT. SNOW
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND COME TO AN END
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES ACROSS. RELATIVELY
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN BUT
2-4 INCHES OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOKS A DECENT BET AT THIS TIME.
SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE
MTNS. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A SHORT UPPER RIDGE
PASSING ACROSS LATE SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. NEXT SURGE OF COLD
AIR ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE UPPER TROF DIGGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH SNOW LIKELY RETURNING
MONDAY IN SFC UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MST MON DEC 22 2014

VFR OVER THE AERODROME INITIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH A PD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE KRWL TO NEAR KCYS IN SNOW SHOWERS.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND BE QUITE WINDY OVER THE PLAINS WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR OVER MANY AREAS WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST MON DEC 22 2014

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 4 FEET OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
IN THE SNOWY`S AND SIERRA MADRES. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY...WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WATCH
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY
     FOR WYZ101-102-107-108-116>119.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-003-
     019>021-054-055-095-096.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY
     FOR NEZ002-003-095-096.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY
     FOR NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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