Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KCYS 262120
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
320 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

PLEASANT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MODELS SHOW THIS HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION BY SATURDAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW AREAS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA REACHING 90. THE ONLY
MINOR FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW...AND TSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. TSTORM POTENTIAL WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...AS THE
MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE TOO GREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION CLOSER
TO THE HIGH. DO NOT EXPECT TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY SINCE
ALL MODELS SHOW THE HIGH DRIFTING A LITTLE EASTWARD...SO KEPT POP
BELOW 15 PERCENT OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HOWEVER...AS A FEW
MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH A BIT FURTHER TO THE
WEST...ALLOWING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT TO ENTER THE FORECAST
AREA. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25 PERCENT WEST OF I25 AND EVEN
HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED TSTORMS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI JUN
26 2015

WE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE. THERE ARE SOME INITIAL INDICATIONS THAT THE
STRONGER/MORE ACTIVE REGION OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RETREAT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO OUR AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES TO THE WEST COAST...HOWEVER WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THAT AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT
RAISING OF POPS FOR NEXT FRIDAY. KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CONSENSUS AND NOT AS HIGH AS MEX MOS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
GIVEN PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIRMASS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL MAINTAIN VFR CATEGORY
FOR ALL AIRPORTS IN SE WYOMING AND THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL POSSIBILITY OF GETTING SOME LOW
STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE EARLY SATURDAY IF THE
VERY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND (AS FORECASTED) STRENGTHENS...BUT
FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO TO WARRANT PUTTING
IT AS A PREVAILING CONDITION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EAST OF THE LARAMIE DUE TO DAYTIME
HUMIDMITIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 TO 45 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JG
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...TJT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.