Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 230101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
701 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The warm and dry weather looks to hold across the CWA for the
most part through Monday as an upper ridge passes across Sunday
and Sunday night. Some breezy conditions again Sunday afternoon
over the western valleys but nothing too strong. Skies expected to
be mostly clear through Sunday with just some high clouds at
times. Small changes begin on Monday as the departing upper ridge
leaves a southwesterly flow in its wake. Moisture will begin
increasing over the area Monday ahead of an upper trough that will
move into the western CONUS. Some showers look to spread into
mainly Carbon county Monday afternoon and continue into Monday
evening as weak impulses begin lifting northeast over that area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The main concern with this portion of the forecast is the timing
of the shortwave features moving ahead of the Eastern Pacific
trof next week.

Tuesday-Tuesday night:
The models are in pretty good agreement with bringing the initial
shortwave through the forecast area on Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. This system appears to bring some moisture along with it,
but it appears like the bulk of the moisture will impact the
mountains. However, it does not look like a snow maker due to this
wave tracking to the north of the area leaving us on the warm side
of the shortwave. It may become a bit breezy after this shortwave
passes through on Tuesday, but we are not looking at any high
impact winds at this time.

Another period of nice weather is setting up during the remainder
of the week in response to a strong upper level ridge building over
the area. The fire danger may be a bit on Thursday due to strong
subsidence along with some gusty winds mainly west of the Laramie
Range. Otherwise, the next shortwave of concern will be on Friday
night or Saturday. Once again, the bulk of the shortwave energy
should stay to our north which will limit any big cool down. The
best chance of precipitation should be across the mountains and
the higher elevations in Wyoming.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 700 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with scattered-
to-broken coverage of high clouds. Winds are expected to remain on
the light side.


Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Fire weather concerns will decrease once the current critical
conditions come to an end by this evening. A trend towards a
little cooler temperatures and increased moisture is expected
Sunday into early next week. Some showers are expected Monday
night into Tuesday in association with a passing disturbance.




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