Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 230909
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
309 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A weak front will push across the CWA this morning but the cooler air
will lag behind the front so still on the warm side for today. Air mass
rather dry so any convection looks to be limited to the mountains later
this afternoon into this evening. Should see an increase in mainly high
clouds today from the southwest as moisture around an upper low near
Las Vegas gets advected northeastward. Secondary front will push across
this evening bringing cooler air for the CWA tonight with the cool air
mass holding Wednesday through Thursday as a surface high slides slowly
east over the northern plains. Airmass will be slow to moisten but
should see some showers and a few storms develop across far southeast
Wyoming by late Wednesday afternoon aided by upslope flow. Activity
should wane Weds night but return Thursday in similar weather pattern.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Latest medium range model guidance depicts a upper trough progressing
east across the north central Rockies and plains Friday through
Saturday. A weak surface front will move east through the CWA by
Saturday morning, preceded by isolated to scattered convection. A
light to moderate west-southwest flow aloft then dominates the weather
pattern for the remainder of the weekend into early next week.
Isolated convection will be possible over the mountains Saturday
and Sunday afternoon. Temperatures start the period near seasonal
normals with highs in the 70s to low 80s, then slowly warm above
normal with highs in the 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

VFR. Cold front will be pushing south along and east of the Laramie
range this morning with winds shifting to northwesterly 15-25 kt.
The front will then move into south central Wyoming later this
afternoon. Gusty westerly winds to 25 kt are forecast for Rawlins
and Saratoga. A few afternoon thunderstorms will be possible over
the mountains, but should not impact Laramie or Cheyenne. Winds
become light and variable after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

One more day of critical fire weather concerns out west due to some
gusty winds combining with dry conditions. A few showers possible
over the mountains but little rainfall expected from these. Conditions
will turn cooler tonight with milder temperatures and lighter winds
allowing for low fire weather concerns Wednesday through the rest
of the week.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for WYZ302>304-306-308.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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