Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 220044
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
644 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA WITH A
COUPLE ENHANCED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOCAL COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WRN COLORADO BY LATE
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OUT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THIS LOW AND PASS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING INCREASED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE FIRST ONE...CURRENTLY OVER AZ...WILL TURN NORTHEAST
AND APPROACH THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA AHEAD OF IT...AIDED BY SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE. ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WANING SOME FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SECOND WAVE WILL THEN APPROACH ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION INITIATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITIES RATHER LOW
ON FRIDAY SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS EXPECTED. HIGHER
INSTABILITY PROGGED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAPES FROM 1000-2000
J/KG OVER FAR SE WY INTO THE SW NEB PANHANDLE SO A FEW STRONGER
STORMS A POSSIBILITY THEN. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER AS SFC
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLONE
DEVELOPING OVER ERN COLORADO. MORE SHOWERY WEATHER FOR SAT EVENING
WITH A FEW STORMS MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE.

OTHER CONCERN IS FOR SOME FOG FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT OVER AND
NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGES. RAIN MAY HELP TO REDUCE THIS HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST UNSETTLED DAY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUN MORNING WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
INSTABILITY AS SAT BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER COULD SEE A FEW
TSTMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
MON. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WARM UP BY MEMORIAL DAY
AND MORE SO BY TUES AND WED. WE MAY ACTUALLY BE BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE.  SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD ON TUES AND THEN FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY WED. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...AFTN INSTABILITY
WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...SO WILL SEE MORE NORMAL
LATE MAY CONVECTIVE PATTERN. AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL BE TOO NUMEROUS (ONLY AN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE) WITH SVR POTENTIAL RATHER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

A VFR START TO THE MOST OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...WITH KCYS
THE ONE EXCEPTION WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITINS. THE FIRST BAND
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING VERY CLOSE TO THE CO/WY STATELINE BY
AROUND 08Z. AS THIS OCCURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT
AIRFIELDS. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
SOMEWHAT AT THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

NO CONCERNS SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MILD AND MOIST WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. MANY AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE
WETTING RAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...RE


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