Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 240008
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
608 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

GRIDDED FORECASTS UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING TO REMOVE ALL POPS...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. ALSO
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON TRENDS. ONE OF THOSE
PICTURE PERFECT CHAMBER OF COMMERCE EVENINGS WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES...DECENT BREEZES AND EXTREMELY COMFORTABLE OUTDOOR
CONDITIONS DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

CURRENTLY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...INTO SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO...INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEVADA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
QUITE STRONG OUT WEST...WITH GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40 MPH
QUITE COMMON. EVEN GETTING GUSTS TO 30 MPH HERE AT CHEYENNE AND
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR UP TO DOUGLAS. HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 20 PERCENT TO MID TEEN PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

EXPECTING WINDS TO STAY UP THIS EVENING...AT LEAST THROUGH MID
EVENING. DID GO A LITTLE HIGHER ON MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN MONTANA MOVES EAST WITH
700MB WINDS EASING SOMEWHAT. STILL GOING TO MIX UP TO NEAR 560MBS
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOUNDING WINDS
AT THIS LEVEL 35-40KTS...SO LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY
OF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

RATHER TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH THE CWA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
IT. A MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN CUT OFF INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUITE WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A DECENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE NW
PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA LATE MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPS FOR MIDWEEK. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE A FEW STORMS OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FRONT BUT BETTER SUPPORT LOOKS TO PASS TO THE NORTH. MAINLY
DRY AND MILD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN WARMING SOME THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING AT 00Z WILL EASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER 18Z AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS OVER THE PLAINS AFTER 20Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS GUST INTO THE MID 30 MPH RANGE AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS. THIS IS DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 30 MPH RANGE FROM
THE LARAMIE RANGE WEST INTO CARBON COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE
EASING. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE
LESS WIND. STILL...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND FULL
SUNSHINE...AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER TEENS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONGER WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS IN THE MID 40 TO NEAR 50MPH ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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