Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 151226
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
526 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

STARTING TO GET A FEW SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH 4-6 INCHES FROM KIMBALL TO SIDNEY AND OVER A FOOT
OF SNOW REPORTED IN SCOTTSBLUFF. THAT OBSERVATION OF A FOOT MAKES
SENSE SINCE THE BFF ASOS HAS REPORTED OVER 0.8 INCHES OF LIQUID IN
THE LAST 9 HRS. DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
A WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE GIVEN THE LATEST REPORTS AND
THE FACT THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THIS AREA BY LATE
MORNING...CREATING QUITE A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW A DECREASING TREND IN
REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AN ELONGATED BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW STILL EXISTS FROM SIOUX COUNTY SOUTHWARD INTO KIMBALL
COUNTY. SCOTTSBLUFF HAS RECEIVED OVER 0.55 INCHES OF LIQUID OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS APPROACHING SIX INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW IN SCOTTS BLUFF
COUNTY. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROWAL THAT ENHANCED
SNOWFALL OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE LAST EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE STRETCHING FROM CONVERSE COUNTY INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN WILL REALLY TAPER OFF BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGE TO THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH
THIS PACKAGE WAS TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH 19Z. THIS AREA HAS GOTTEN THE MOST SNOWFALL AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH FROM SCOTTSBLUFF TO SIDNEY...SO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A CONCERN.

A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A QUITE COLD NIGHT AS
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS COME DOWN. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT DRY CONDITIONS.
A SFC HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON TUES WILL PROMOTE WEAK SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN FACT...WITH WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT SEE ANY
WINDY CONDITIONS AFTER THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE
SPLIT FLOW WITH MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON WED
AND WED NIGHT. ALL MODELS KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

A MOSTLY DRY AND VERY SEASONAL PERIOD SHAPING UP LATE THIS WEEK THRU
EARLY NEXT. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
MOVING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED...SO EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NT. THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRES SHOULD FARE A BIT BETTER WHERE A COUPLE OF
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TROF DEPARTS FRIDAY MAKING ROOM FOR A
FLATTENING SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO BUILD IN. A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE ENSUES.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF SPLITTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AS A STRONG JET STREAK INTO THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER TROF LOCATED OVR
IDAHO. BY SUNDAY...THIS TROUGH CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW NR THE
ARIZONA/OLD MEXICO BORDER. ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO
CARRY ANY IMPACT ON THE AREAS SENSIBLE WEATHER. NORTHERN STREAM
LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING THE PATTERN TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL...CRANKING WINDS BACK UP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT. BEFORE THEN...REALLY DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL HOVER
VERY NR SEASONAL NORMS...LOW 30S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND UPPER
30S OUT ON THE ERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

SE WYOMING TERMINALS...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE
DAY TODAY...THOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THRU 22Z AT KRWL AND KLAR. KCYS WILL BENEFIT FROM DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF OF THE HIER TERRAIN WHICH WILL SHOULD KEEP CIGS IN MVFR THRU
MOST OF THE DAY. THE HIER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AGAIN TODAY AS
THESE CIGS INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS. WEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS IN CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 22Z.

WRN NEBRASKA TERMINALS...A POOR START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN -SN. RADAR TRENDS
HAVE BEEN DOWNWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT AT AREA TERMINALS
THRU THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A POSSIBILITY...IT JUST WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
BLOWING SNOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25-40 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH SNOW HAS FALLEN...THIS COULD CERTAINLY
CARRY IMPACT ON VISIBILITIES AT TERMINALS. LOW CIGS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO LINGER OR RE-DEVELOP AFTER 00Z TUE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK.  SNOW WILL COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING.  WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER
FROM THE RECENT STORM WILL BE ON THE GROUND FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS
WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ101-102.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR NEZ002-003-095-
     096.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF


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