Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 130137
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
737 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

GOESW LOW CLOUD/FOG PRODUCT...SURFACE OBS AND I-80 WEBCAMS SHOWED
LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND
THIS EVENING WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. IN A RECENT UPDATE...ADDED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND PATCHY FOG TO WY ZONES 116 AND 117.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING EXPERIENCED A KILLING FREEZE LAST NT...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY 25-30F. ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE
FORESEEABLE FORECAST...THIS WILL BRING AN END TO FREEZE
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SEASON IN THESE AREAS. SATELLITE PIX SHOW
CLOUDS IN RETREAT MODE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE HAS
BEEN EFFICIENT IN BL MIXING. THIS CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION MARK IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST OVR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS THE NECESSITY OF A FROST
ADVISORY. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT...LATEST MODELS SHOW SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVR THE
ERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE BL MIXED...ESPECIALLY
OVR ERN PLAINS LOCATIONS. SO...FOR NOW WILL SIDE WITH THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD ONLY SUGGEST PATCHY FROST IN LOWEST
ELEVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A VERY TYPICAL AUTUMN WEEKEND ON TAP AS DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES PRODUCES SUN-DRENCHED SKIES. H7
TEMPERATURES PROGS OF 9-11C WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS THAT WILL
GENERALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH 60S OVR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING AND
THE NRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AS A SFC HIGH SLIPS SE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE CWA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MILD
AIR MASS. WARMER TEMPS RETURN MIDWEEK AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINES
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPS ON THE FRONT SIDE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE CWA BUT PRESENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP MUCH OF IT SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH. STILL MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO RETURN BY
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CWA AND MINOR
DISTURBANCES APPROACH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

REMAINING CLOUDS/NEAR MVFR CIGS/OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A MUCH DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL PERIOD TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
DISTRICT THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY.
IT WILL ALSO BOOST HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S/70S THRU
MONDAY...WITH 70S/80S TUE-THU. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THRU THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN







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