Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
135 PM MDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Tonight-Thursday night...the forecast area will be under the
influence of an upper level ridge with only some mid and/or high
clouds spilling over its axis and across the area. Low temperatures
tonight in the upper 20s to mid 30s. On Thursday 850mb temperatures
warm about 7F to 10F supporting highs in the low to mid 70s. Clouds
increase Thursday night with lows in the low to mid 40s.

Friday...west to northwest winds gradually increase from west to
east during the morning ahead of a cold front that moves through
during the early to mid afternoon. Peak winds should reach the 30 to
35 mph range during the day. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible generally along and north of the interstate during the
afternoon and evening hours with dry weather expected after
midnight. A little less certain on high temperature forecast given
timing issues with the frontal passage. Right now have readings
ranging from the low 70s north to low 80s far south. Low
temperatures range from the low/mid 30s in far eastern Colorado to
the upper 30s to low 40s east of the CO/KS border.

Saturday...dry weather expected. The upper level ridge axis
redevelops with some high clouds from time to time. Afternoon
temperatures cool back into the low 60s to around 70. Southeast
winds increase into the 20 mph range with higher gusts in the
afternoon generally along and west of the CO/KS border.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Thursday winds will be light and temperatures will be even warmer
than today as the upper level ridge builds over the forecast area.

Thursday night the lows will be warmer than Monday`s highs.

Friday the upper level ridge will shift east of the forecast area.
Behind the ridge a short wave trough will develop overhead/deepen in
the afternoon.  At the surface a dry line will develop just east of
the forecast area.  During the latter half of the afternoon a cold
front will begin moving in from the north.

Higher dew points will be circulated around the surface low ahead of
the cold front.  This will allow CAPE to increase along and ahead of
the cold front which will allow for storm development as the front
moves south into the forecast area.  Storm coverage will peak by
early evening then move out of the forecast area by mid to late

There are a couple unknowns including the placement of the surface
low and the speed of the upper level short wave trough.  If the
trough moves too quickly over the forecast area in the afternoon,
the lift along the cold front will be behind the short wave trough
where subsidence will be.  If this occurs the storm coverage will be
more limited than if the lift with the cold front is ahead of the
short wave trough where the upper level lift will be.  Most model
data supports a slower short wave trough progression which would put
lift from the front ahead of the short wave trough.  Regarding the
front, model consensus has it through the middle of the forecast
area by early evening.  With the surface low south of the front,
would not be surprised if the front moved in earlier in the
afternoon.  If the front does move in earlier the timing of the
storm formation will also be earlier in the afternoon.

Am not expecting any severe storms to develop at this time due to
CAPE under 1000 j/kg, although a brief surge in intensity to severe
criteria along the front can`t be ruled out.  Deep layer shear is
quite strong, which may cause the storm updrafts to be ripped apart
considering the low amount of CAPE available.  DCAPE values do not
support severe wind production.

Friday night the cold front will have moved east of the forecast
area by mid evening if not earlier than that.  Behind the front
storm activity will end from north to south.

Saturday through Wednesday...

The main upper ridge moves east of the region on Saturday with
persistent southwest flow aloft bringing a series of disturbances
across the forecast area through Tuesday ahead of the trough that
deepens over the western U.S. and forms a cutoff low over the
extreme southwest U.S. That cutoff low remains near the U.S./Mexico
border trough Wednesday as the northern branch of the upper flow
moves a trough into the northern plains.

Temperatures remain above average but cool gradually through
Saturday and Sunday as surface high pressure remains over the plains
states and a weak lee side inverted trough deepens along the front
range. The surface trough develops into a closed low that
transitions further south over the panhandle region as a cold front
eases southward into the forecast area on Monday.  Cooler surface
high pressure moves south into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday,
which will keep temperatures close to average for this time of year
with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s.

Dry conditions are expected on Saturday and Sunday. There is a
chance of a mix of rain and snow early Monday through Monday night
and Tuesday morning as the front pushes into the region along with
the series of weak disturbances lifting out across the region in the
southwest flow aloft.  Additional mixed precipitation is possible on
Wednesday as precipitation across the southern plains moves
northward into the southern sections of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1015 AM MDT Wed Mar 21 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions through the period. Southwest winds gusting
25 to 30kts expected from taf issuance through 22z before
subsiding. For tonight winds vary between south and southwest at
speeds under 10kts. For Thursday morning winds slowly veer to the
northwest at speeds under 10kts.

KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. Southwest winds gusting
perhaps to 20kts from taf issuance through 23z subside below 10kts
by 00z. For the overnight into Thursday morning winds generally
variable at speeds under 5kts.


Issued at 130 PM MDT Wed Mar 21 2018

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Friday. Areas include
those generally along and west of a line from Burlington to Leoti.
In these areas west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher
gusts will combine with relative humidity near 15 percent to
create critical fire weather conditions.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday for
the western half of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties of Colorado.
In these areas relative humidity approaching 15 percent will
combine with southeast winds gusting 25 to 30 mph.


KS...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for KSZ027-041-042.

CO...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for COZ253-254.



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