Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 192112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
312 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Radar and surface observations showing a decreasing in the areal
coverage and intensity of the precipitation. In some locations,
the precipitation has switched back to rain. Expect little if any
additional accumulation of snow. Also since the ground
temperature is above freezing and the snowfall rate has not been
high enough to overcome that, the snow that has fallen has already
melted or is too wet for the wind to blow around. So cancelled the
Winter Weather Advisory.

Otherwise expect the winds and clouds to decrease through the
night. Temperatures will cool into the lower and middle 20s.
However, if clouds decrease faster, the current forecast is too
warm. Plenty of sun and downslope winds will bring about a good
warm up with temperatures recovering into the 50s. Relative
humidities look to stay above 15 percent. However, the night shift
will need to make sure the relative humidities do not decrease any
further in the far south and southwest portion of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Wednesday, a warming trend will start to take over the area as
high pressure moves into the high plains. Max temperatures will
be in the mid 60s come Wednesday and jump up to the mid 70s and
lower 80s by Friday. Winds will be light until Friday afternoon
where they will pick up as a shortwave moves over the area. There
is a possibility for fire weather criteria impacting the
southwestern portion of our CWA Friday afternoon and evening.

Friday night the Tri-State area could see some rainfall. At this
time,  guidance has the system grazing areas north of I-70, but
expecting this to change through the next couple of days.
Depending on extent and area of rainfall on Friday, will determine
the fire weather threat on Saturday and Sunday. Went with
Superblend for Pops.

Sunday looks more favorable for another mixed wintry precipitation
event for the Tri-state area, but, since it`s so far in the
extended, decided to go straight superblend for this system. After
Sunday`s event, expecting max temperatures to sit in the mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

For Kgld, mvfr conditions are expected through 21z and then will
become vfr at 21z and continue through the rest of the period.
Through 00z north winds will continue near 20 knots with gusts to
near 30 knots. Through 02z those north winds will decrease to
sustained near 7 knots. The winds will become west around 6 knots
near 09z.

For Kmck, mvfr conditions with occasional ifr conditions are
expected through 21z. At that time mvfr conditions will prevail
until 00z when conditions become vfr. Vfr conditions continue
through the rest of the period. North winds near 16 knots with
gusts to near 25 knots will continue through 22z. At 22z the winds
will be sustained near 15 knots with no gusts. These winds will
continue until 09z when they become west near 6 knots.




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