Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 151740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1140 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 235 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are mainly clear
with some high thin cloud cover filtering thru the area. Temps are
currently ranging from the mid 30s thru the 40s w/ light southerly

For today...another well-above normal day for temps is on tap for
the entire region. Amplified H5 ridge is east of the region with
surface flow out of the SW ahead of an approaching shortwave/surface
low that will affect the area tonight into Friday.

Ahead of this system passage the main wx concern for today continues
to focus around the very dry conditions due to lack of moisture.
With high temps expected to range from the low 70s north to around
80f south...low RH readings will be pronounced...especially along
and south of Interstate 70. A SW to SE surface flow...gusting 30 to
40 mph by this afternoon is creating dangerous fire wx conditions.
With the latest model data in...have continued the Red Flag Warning
for this afternoon currently...but added in Thomas...Gove...Graham
and Sheridan counties.

For tonight as the surface low/shortwave work off the Front Range
and into the CWA...expecting light precipitation to develop. Based
on the latest model track of the surface low...highest pops will be
over northern zones. The upper support with the low does come off
the Front Range negatively tilted and does show some weak
instability along the CO/KS/NE borders. Have continued mention of a
slight chance for thunderstorms but limited it to around 3 hrs
around 00z-03z.

Going into Friday...the passage of the surface low allows for a
shift from SSE winds to more WNW thru the day from west to east.
Models showing strong gradient behind system so have kept increase
to 35 to 45 mph for much of the CWA. Those areas not seeing much if
any QPF from the system passage could see blowing dust develop.

Light precip continues to taper slowly from west to east and with
temps not cold enough to support snow have left out. Friday
afternoon will still see potential for low RH readings to work in
tandem with expected strong winds. For now have kept current Fire Wx
Watch intact for SW areas...and may need an upgrade later today.

Going into Friday night and into the first half of the
weekend...with the low having finally shifted eastward towards the
Mississippi Valley the region will see a brief cool down Friday
night as another H5 ridge shifts into the Central Plains. This
system will push eastward for Saturday allowing for SW upper flow to
returns providing another slight warmup. Clear and dry conditions
continue going into Saturday night.

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday across
far eastern RH readings drop into the teens.

For temps...cooler air behind the exiting systems will allow for
overnight lows to drop into the mid 20s giving way to lower and mid
60s for Saturday highs. With the region remaining in SW flow aloft
and southerly flow at the surface...Saturday night for the region
will see continued WAA with lows only in the lower and mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Precipitation chances build back into the area as a system moves
across the area sunday afternoon. Expecting rain transitioning
quickly to snow, with forecast snow totals up to an inch, and then
transition back over to rainfall on Monday. Guidance has come in
better alignment, but there is still some variability that will
occur over the next couple of model runs. Lows for Sunday night
will range in the mid 20s to lower 30s for the Tri-State area.

Along with this system, temperatures will drop in the upper 40s and
early 50s Monday afternoon. Winds are forecast to increase as the
system moves out of our area, but not expecting any fire weather
concerns or wind events at this time.

The upper level pattern shifts and ridging starts to build back into
the Tri-State area on Tuesday. As a result, temperatures start
trending upward and will be in the mid to upper 60s by Thursday,
with lows in the mid 30s by Friday morning.

There is potential for some fire weather concerns Thursday, as the
area dries out and winds increase ahead of another potential
weather event. It`s too far in the extended to get a solid grasp
on yet, but with how active this fire season has been, seemed a
good idea just to draw attention to it.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu Mar 15 2018

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance
through about 08z then mvfr/ifr cigs.

A potent storm system will move across the area this evening then
exit the area during the day Friday. East to southeast winds this
afternoon should gust 20-25kts through mid evening then start to
veer to the northwest as soon as 09z at KGLD. As they become
northwest at both terminals wind speeds increase into the 20-30kt
range with gusts up to 40kts or so (KGLD). Wraparound
precipitation is expected to bring showers to both terminals with
the better chance at KMCK where some visibility restrictions


KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for COZ253-254.



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