Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 222036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
236 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

The primary short term forecast concerns are the anticipated
elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon
along with elevated fire weather conditions that return on
Saturday afternoon across portions of far eastern Colorado and
west central Kansas.

An upper ridge moves across the high plains today and over the
eastern plains on Friday as a short wave trough pushes through
the central Rockies and moves east of the forecast area by Friday
night. Daytime highs will continue to warm today and Friday as the
ridge moves across the region and a surface low deepens over the
Colorado and Kansas border region by mid day Friday ahead of the
upper short wave trough. This will bring a dry and warm near
surface flow with gusty generally westerly winds ahead of the low
during the day of Friday. These dry and breezy conditions on
Friday are expected to produce elevated to critical fire weather
conditions across the southwest corner of the forecast area during
the afternoon. A fire weather watch has remains in effect for that
area between 18z-00Z Friday afternoon.

As the upper short wave and surface low center continue east
across Kansas, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible across
the northern sections of the forecast area during the late
afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures are expected to move in
in the wake of the low on Saturday bringing the daytime highs
down from the 70s and lower 80s on Friday to the 60s and lower 70s
on Saturday.

Even with the cooler temperatures and winds that are not expected
to be as strong on Saturday, conditions will remain dry enough
with afternoon RH values less than 20 percent, for elevated fire
weather conditions to be present again over far eastern Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Main forecast concern will be active weather pattern for this
period. Satellite is showing an amplified pattern from the Pacific
into the western Atlantic.

Model agreement has digressed from 24 hours ago after coming into
closer agreement the previous day. Models are having trouble on
the evolution of the incoming complex upper trough with more
problems at the beginning of the period. In general through the
entire period the Gfs is slower, deeper, and further south. The
Ecmwf is the fastest. However for the last few days of the period,
the Gfs is the same as the Ecmwf with the only difference being
the Gfs is about 12 hours slower. Gefs means support a slower
solution than the operational. The newest Ecmwf is still faster
but is now less amplified. So confidence is decreasing in what the
outcome of this scenario will be.

The best mid and upper level lift look to link up later Sunday
night, especially Monday afternoon and night, and to a lesser extent
Tuesday morning. So have no problem with the pops the forecast
builder gave me from the last half of Sunday night into Tuesday.

The problem is at the end of the period, in which I mentioned
yesterday, is the models tendency to not have both streams far
enough south. This typically happens in split flow. If models end up
being correct, the last few days of the period , we will be under
the influence of the weaker/more open northern stream of the split
and possibly weak ridging depending on which model you choose.
The outlier on this is the Canadian which is much further north
than Gfs and Ecmwf. So am thinking the precipitation could be
less. So made no major changes to the Wednesday into Thursday
period, however did start a downward trend and nudged the pops
down a little.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Thu Mar 22 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions through the period. Light and variable winds
will continue through about 23z before establishing a southeast
direction around 6kts by 00z. Winds increase toward 12kts from the
south in the 06z-10z timeframe under a mid level deck of clouds.
After 15z winds start to veer to the southwest then west-southwest
and increase in speed with sustained winds around 15kts with
higher gusts.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through 13z winds winds generally
from the east or southeast direction under 10kts. Some stratus and
fog is possible in the 13z-17z timeframe and could produce mvfr or
ifr conditions with an east wind under 10kts. After 17z vfr
conditions expected with winds from the southeast near 10kts.


KS...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for KSZ027-041-042.

CO...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for COZ253-254.



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